“Will the rest of the world, Europe. Australia and even the US of A wage war other than words, words and more words, over the bullying China does?”
Our president, as described by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Singapore last week, “spoke eloquently…about the rule of law in the South China Sea…and he’s right.”
Austin added “the harassment the Philippines has faced is dangerous – pure and simple. And we all share an interest in ensuring the South China Sea remains open and free.”
Our president repeatedly declares, in Australia as in Singapore, that we will not surrender even a square inch, or a square millimeter of territory to China, and vowed to defend our sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea.
In a question and answer forum in Singapore, he said if a Filipino citizen is killed while in the South China Sea, that would be “very, very close to what we would define as an act of war,” implying it would be reason to invoke a mutual defense treaty with our ally, the US of A.
He then called on ASEAN centrality to come together and forge a consensus on the SCS issue.
But is ASEAN listening?
Malaysia’s PM, Anwar Sadat, one of the keynote speakers in the Shangri-la defense confab, said that Malaysia and other ASEAN countries should remain neutral and balance their relationships with the two contesting powers of China and the US.
“Things have changed,” he said. “More countries are exercising their more independent views, other than being part of a Cold War sort of grouping.”
Earlier, Malaysia’s longest-serving prime minister, Mahathir was quoted in Tokyo as saying “Beijing can claim the entire South China Sea, but we do not have to go to war because of your claim.”
He argued as long as China’s position does not cause physical harm…there is no issue. He said that China has not inspected ships or banned sailing through the South China Sea. “We have oil production in the SCS…so far they haven’t done anything.”
The 99-year old elder statesman added “Maybe one day, they will realize the claim means nothing,” alluding to the future reality that an “ambitious and more aggressive Xi Jinping” would no longer be in power, and China’s policies may change.
Mahathir stressed China is such a big market which ASEAN countries cannot afford to lose, and repeated his position ASEAN should remain neutral in the intensified US-China tensions, including on the Taiwan issue, as he blamed Washington for “stoking the friction.”
In different style, former Pres. Duterte said about the same thing: that we will not give up our claims in the WPS, but now is not the time to push the envelope; that we must first strengthen ourselves, and let sleeping dogs lie for the meantime, just as we bolster our trade and economic relationship with China.
Even Thailand’s Srettha Thavisin echoed their words, saying Southeast Asian countries should “try to maintain ASEAN centrality and relevance,” because “Asia is the equilibrium” amid superpower rivalry.
So are we being isolated by our ASEAN brothers? Is there no consensus at this time the Philippines must be supported against what it calls “the big bully” in the SCS?
We cannot expect support from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, for these are almost entirely dependent on China for the massive infrastructure projects that they have.
Nor from Brunei, which also claims a part of the SCS, but is content with its current economic status where a low population thrives on its oil revenues.
Even Singapore, the tiny city-state whose land area is smaller than Laguna de Bay but is a world economic powerhouse, remains neutral in the US-China rivalry.
Its former PM and now senior minister, Lee Hsien Loong, openly asks why the Philippines wants to be a battleground for war.
Meanwhile, Vietnam and Indonesia, which together with the Philippines constitute 72 percent of ASEAN’s total population, are on different tracks.
Vietnam and Indonesia have their conflicting claims with China and are not surrendering these, but they prefer economic gains rather than geopolitical bravado. And they are reaping benefits in terms of massive investments from China.
Will the rest of the world, Europe. Australia and even the US of A wage war other than words, words and more words, over the bullying China does?
Or is it time to be practical, bide our time, and come to terms with reality?
