“The fractures are real, and Sara’s sense of entitlement has made them harder to repair.”
Sara Duterte’s political armor is cracking. Once a symbol of public loyalty, the Vice President now confronts a harsh reality: a fractured support base, growing opposition, and a legacy overshadowed by her father’s influence. Her journey highlights the brutal reality of Filipino politics, where alliances shift like sand and even the strongest names are tested.
The rise of Sara Duterte once seemed inevitable. She commanded respect as the “Queen of Davao,” an unchallenged figure in her father Rodrigo Duterte’s stronghold. Her victories were a testament to the Duterte brand—a name that few dared question. Yet that sense of entitlement has left her unprepared for the unforgiving national stage, where the loyalty she enjoyed at home now feels distant. Once one of the strongest potential candidates for the presidency in 2028, Sara now confronts a sobering question: Can she withstand the scrutiny that national ambition brings?
Her journey from Davao to Manila was supposed to mark her ascent, but recent polling data by OCTA and Pulse Asia tells a story of fading confidence. OCTA’s Q3 survey shows a six-point decline in trust, while Pulse Asia marks an even sharper nine-point drop in approval. This downturn stretches beyond Metro Manila and Luzon to Visayas and even Mindanao. In her fortress of Davao, cracks are forming. In early 2023, her approval stood at 87 percent; today, it barely clears 60—a signal that the once-unbreakable Duterte hold may be loosening.
What has driven this shift? Her rocky tenure as Secretary of Education, particularly her handling of the department’s budget, is a major factor. Her unapologetic push for confidential funds—defended with a defiance that bordered on indifference to public critique—has ignited fierce opposition. During congressional hearings, her confrontational rhetoric and accusations left the public uneasy with her methods. Analysts describe her stance as entitled, an unyielding confidence that may have suited her local stronghold but appears alienating on the national stage. This approach has not only distanced allies but also emboldened critics, who have seized on her missteps.
The public, too, has turned. Across demographics, anti-administration sentiment is surfacing. Her once reliable support within Class E remains, but it is quietly diminishing. Meanwhile, the ABC economic classes have shown the steepest decline, suggesting that a more informed, urban population has grown wary of her intentions. For Sara, these shifting sands risk becoming political quicksand, and her challenge is clear: rebuild her base or risk being left behind.
As the 2025 midterms approach, Sara’s tensions with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. add another layer of complexity. Their alliance, once mutually beneficial, has turned rocky. This tension could weaken her political base, especially in Davao, where rival factions may seize the chance to exploit the divide. Timing is critical, and her adversaries know it.
If Sara hopes to stem this decline, her path forward is difficult. Transparency, or the lack thereof, has become her Achilles’ heel. Her handling of confidential funds, if left unchecked, will continue to be a focal point of criticism. A commitment to transparency, including independent audits, would signal a shift from the insular stance she took in Congress—a necessary move if she wants to regain public trust.
Repairing her image, however, requires more than transparency. Sara needs alliances beyond her father’s shadow. While her falling out with the Marcos camp has strained her political capital, new alliances could help restore her standing. Diplomacy has not been her strong suit, yet appealing to a national audience demands it. She must temper the brash rhetoric that resonated in Davao and instead adopt a measured, policy-driven approach. Educational reform, particularly around transparency and modernization, could be her rallying cry, addressing public concerns over quality education.
In Davao, she must also reassert her commitment to local governance, showing tangible progress in her strongholds. Grounded leadership—focused on local issues and reforms—could anchor her as a leader who delivers, not one who simply commands.
Can she change course? Philippine politics has a history of granting second chances, and the Duterte brand still carries weight. But the fractures are real, and Sara’s sense of entitlement has made them harder to repair. Her adversaries see obvious vulnerabilities and are ready to pounce on further missteps.
Her allies may advise caution, urging her to acknowledge past mistakes and pivot toward a more service-oriented and humble approach. To chart a new course, she must embrace transparency, rebuild her alliances, and soften her image—a transformation that could still alter her trajectory.
In the end, Sara Duterte’s journey serves as a reminder that no political dynasty is invincible. Her story, once marked by steady ascent, now wavers between redemption and ruin. As she navigates these turbulent waters, her fate mirrors the delicate balance of legacy and accountability that defines Filipino politics. The nation watches, waiting to see if she can rise above the fractures or if she too will be claimed by the forces she once commanded.
