The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Monday it revised upward its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year and next.
The IMF, in its April 2024 Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, said the Philippine economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow 6.2 percent this year, up from its earlier forecast of 5.9 percent in October.
It is within the government’s target range of 6 percent to 7 percent this year.
The IMF also expects economic growth to reach 6.2 percent in 2025, slightly up from its 6.1 percent forecast in October. This is lower than the government’s target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent next year.
“India and the Philippines have been the source of repeated positive growth surprises, supported by resilient domestic demand,” the IMF said.
It said growth is expected to remain strong and steady in Indonesia (at 5.0 and 5.1 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively) and in Malaysia (at about 4.4 percent), but to be more subdued in Thailand (at 2.7 percent in 2024), where prospects for the implementation of a fiscal stimulus package have dimmed.
Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected at 4.5 percent—an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point relative to the October 2023 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, which partially reflects carryover from strong growth outcomes in the second half of 2023.
“In emerging Asia outside China, growth is expected to be driven mainly by private consumption,” the IMF said.
“The outlook for exports is improving only gradually, owing to the shift in demand from traded goods to domestically produced services in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which constrains trade. For 2025, growth in the region is projected at 4.3 percent—unchanged from October,” it said.
The IMF said the growth in Asia and the Pacific has been surprisingly resilient—despite still elevated monetary policy rates, a feeble external environment and the prospect of spillovers from China’s property sector correction.
“The region remained the world’s most dynamic in 2023 and contributed nearly two-thirds of global growth, with domestic consumption remaining the main driver of activity, especially in emerging Asia,” it said.
“At the same time, inflation has retreated, helped by timely monetary tightening in 2022 and early 2023 and by falling commodity and goods prices—although the speed of disinflation varied significantly between economies,” it said.
