"Phivolcs folk are the only civil servants who operate on the basis of guesswork, albeit guesswork of a highly educated kind."
"Phivolcs folk are the only civil servants who operate on the basis of guesswork, albeit guesswork of a highly educated kind."
Arguably the most difficult jobs in the Philippine civil service are the jobs held by the staff of Phivolcs (Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology). True, the members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police are called upon to lay down their lives if demanded by duty, but the Phivolcs folk are the only civil servants who operate on the basis of guesswork, albeit guesswork of a highly educated kind.
The Phivolcs folk are called upon to predict when and where earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are likely to occur and how strong—as measured by the Richter scale—they are likely to be. Given the nature of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and their ability to cause enormous loss of lives and damage to property, the responsibility of Phivolcs head Dr. Ricardo Solidum Jr. and his people is nothing short of awesome. For them it’s a praised-if-we’re-right-damned-if-we-miss existence.
That’s the way things are. Phivolcs does not deal in certainties; it deals in probabilities. On the basis of their studies of a country’s geological structure and physical history, it hazards guesses —educated guesses—about the probability of occurrence of a seismological or volcanic event. Sometimes it makes the right call and much loss is averted; at other times it misses the geologic signals and the nation is unprepared for the ensuing disaster.
Given the limitations and inherent risks of its job, Phivolcs may be adjudged to have performed creditably. In the National Capital Region-Central Luzon area four major geological events have occurred during the last 50 years, namely, the earthquakes that brought down the Ruby Towers (1968), the earthquake of 1970, Mt. Pinatubo’s 1990 eruption and the earthquake that it triggered in 1991. The 1968 temblor appeared to have surprised Phivolcs, but it correctly predicted Mt. Pinatubo’s eruption. It had been saying that there had been no volcanic eruption in the Zambales mountain range for 600 years and that one was therefore likely to happen in the near future. An eruption did happen, with far-reaching consequences, chief of which was the US military’s decision to leave Clark Air Base.
Phivolcs’ current preoccupation— actually, it has been preoccupied with the matter for many years—is the Big One, the earthquake that Phivolcs said is likely to occur sooner or later in the VFS (Valley Fault System). VFS is composed of two fault lines running across Metro Manila. The more famous of the two is the Marikina fault line, which runs through an area dominated by the Marikina River. Phivolcs has pointed out that the VFS has been inactive for 600 years also and is likely to experience movement in the foreseeable future. The agency cannot say exactly when, but it says that the Big One is likely to take place sooner rather than later.
Obviously, the operative word is preparation. Of late, Phivolcs has been repeating its warnings about the need to prepare Metro Manila’s structures —buildings, houses and public installations—for the Big One. In a recent speech Dr. Solidum reminded constructors and real estate developers about the key role that they play in the preparation process. Retrofitting of structures and installations should be undertaken expeditiously where it is necessary, he stressed. Needless to say, the building inspection units of the local governments have a major responsibility to fulfill in the process of preparing for the Big One.
The estimates made by Phivolcs of loss of lives and damage to property resulting from the Big One’s occurrence are frightening. But the authorities of Metro Manila don’t have to be told that the losses will be much reduced if a good job of preparation is done.
To its credit, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Administration has been taking measures toward mitigation of the impact of the Big One. For one, it has been conducting drills in heavily populated structures—particularly schools and individual establishments—intended to minimize injuries and losses of lives.
But what it has been doing is not nearly enough. Evacuation centers should be widely publicized so that people will know where to run when disaster comes. I think that the majority of Metro Manilans still don’t know where the nearest evacuation center is. And vital supplies—canned food, medicines and batteries, etc.—must already be prepositioned in well-publicized and fairly easily accessible places. Above all, the older structures and public installations must be retrofitted as soon as possible, for it is in these places that the highest casualties will be recorded.
In conclusion, is Metro Manila ready for the Big One? I don’t think so.
