(Part 2)
“That’s the reality of Philippine politics, where Sara Duterte’s bold gambit may yet prove to be a masterstroke – or her undoing”
IN OUR previous column we discussed Sara Duterte’s strengths and weaknesses. We continue with the opportunities and threats.
Opportunities:
Emerging as an Opposition Leader: With discontent brewing within various sectors against Marcos’ policies, Sara is well-positioned to rally this dissenting voice. If she can channel frustrations with inflation, governance issues, or controversies surrounding Marcos’ administration, she could position herself as a viable alternative.
Solidifying New Alliances: By distancing herself from Marcos, Sara can potentially forge new political alliances, including with groups or individuals disenchanted with the current administration. This flexibility opens the door for broader coalitions in future elections.
Threats:
Retaliation from the Marcos Camp: Marcos’ allies may strike back, framing Sara’s departure as an act of betrayal, and could attempt to isolate her politically. If she becomes too vocal in her opposition, she risks being sidelined.
Political Fragmentation: If Sara’s public split with Marcos triggers factionalism within the Duterte base, she may struggle to maintain her influence over the Duterte bloc. Fragmentation could also weaken her capacity to consolidate power against Marcos.
The shifting tides
Sara Duterte’s motivations for turning opposition against Marcos can be understood through multiple lenses:
Political Survival: By turning opposition, Sara distances herself from potential scandals or policy failures that could define Marcos’ presidency. Her move may be calculated to preserve her political capital for the future, particularly if the administration becomes increasingly unpopular.
Setting the Stage for 2028: By severing ties with Marcos now, she positions herself as a potential frontrunner for the next presidential election. As political disillusionment with Marcos grows, Sara could step in as the alternative – a leader who once supported but ultimately rejected a faltering administration.
Appeasing Key Constituencies: The KOJC apology highlights her need to maintain support from her father’s loyal backers. A major strategic motivation may be ensuring the loyalty of groups like KOJC, which were instrumental in securing votes for the Duterte family.
A new political era
Sara Duterte’s shift to opposition carries profound implications for both political dynasties.
For the Dutertes, it allows Sara to break free from the Marcos shadow and reassert her family’s brand of governance – one marked by populism and strongman rhetoric.
However, if her opposition leads to significant fragmentation within her own base, the influence of the Duterte name may wane.
For Marcos, Sara’s break signals vulnerability within his coalition.
It underscores the inherent tensions that arise from political marriages of convenience.
Should Sara continue to galvanize opposition, Marcos may find his once-stable alliance in tatters, paving the way for a more divided political landscape heading into the 2028 election cycle.
Can Sara achieve her objectives?
Sara Duterte’s prospects hinge on her ability to consolidate opposition forces without alienating too many key players.
If she can maintain the loyalty of her father’s base while attracting new allies disenchanted with Marcos, she stands a strong chance of positioning herself as a formidable candidate in 2028.
However, this tightrope walk could also backfire if her opposition becomes too antagonistic, leading to retaliatory political isolation.
Recommendations
To Sara Duterte: Focus on gradually building alliances within the opposition without fully burning bridges with Marcos.
Cultivate a narrative of independence while still demonstrating the pragmatism needed to navigate the political landscape.
Timing will be key – overplaying your hand too soon could isolate you from key supporters.
To Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: Address the growing discontent within his political coalition.
Reinforcing the unity narrative may no longer suffice.
Instead, focus on delivering tangible policy results that resonate with both his base and the public at large to prevent further defections.
Imagine a chessboard where the pieces are constantly shifting, and every move carries the risk of checkmate.
That’s the reality of Philippine politics, where Sara Duterte’s bold gambit may yet prove to be a masterstroke – or her undoing.
In Philippine politics, alliances are always in flux.
But only time will tell whether this move will ultimately strengthen her position or pave the way for her political downfall.
