Bello says ‘The crisis of the US empire is real, but its trajectory of decline is likely to be a protracted and uneven one’
In a recent symposium at the University of the Philippines Center for Integrative and Development Studies (UP-CIDS) in Diliman, Walden Bello, internationally renowned development expert, presented a paper, “Is the US Empire unraveling?” where he argued: “The crisis of the US empire is real, but its trajectory of decline is likely to be a protracted and uneven one.”
For this column, however, we will focus on what he said about the US-China rivalry in this part of the world.
“Washington wants to keep focused on China, and increasingly its rhetoric contains few references to promoting values like democracy and human rights and has come across as simply keeping from Beijing from becoming Number One, despite the fact that Beijing has explicitly disclaimed seeking to be Number One and has shown by its behavior that it does not seek to step into the role of the US as global hegemon…
”While the US military posture is ‘forward defense,’ China’s
posture remains ‘strategic defensive,’ as even the Pentagon admits. Though China has raised its military spending and might be in the process of re-orienting its force posture,
“Beijing is not engaged in an arms race with the US, which continues to spend three times more than China over the last few years.
“China’s strategic nuclear arsenal remains puny in comparison to that of the US. It has only one overseas base (in Djibouti) compared to the scores of US military bases and military installations in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Guam, in addition to the Seventh Fleet…
“Having focused for so long on a defensive strategy reliant on A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) weaponry, China’s offensive capabilities are limited, with its naval offensive punch being provided by three aircraft carriers with a Soviet-era design that are in technological terms light-years away from those of the US.
“The main site of confrontation between an aggressive US and a defensive China is the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular the South China Sea.
“First, Washington has been rattling its saber about responding to a Chinese ‘invasion’ of Taiwan…True, Beijing reserves the option of military action to take over Taiwan, but, seriously, it would be crazy to resort to this option since the US could wipe out most of the Chinese Navy offensive capabilities 24 hours after hostilities begin.
“Second, Washington’s declared intent in obtaining more military bases in the Philippines is to support Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China. The reality is that defending Taiwan against a non-existent Chinese threat of military takeover is the rhetorical rationale for the real goal of building up the Philippines as a springboard from which to contain China.
“Third, China’s motivations for its actions in the South China Sea are primarily defensive, that is, to expand its defense perimeter against US attack from American bases in the Western Pacific and the Seventh Fleet—a reality that even the Pentagon admits when it notes that Beijing’s main activity in the maritime formations it possesses or had seized from the Philippines is installing anti-missile and anti-ship missiles in order to shoot down incoming missiles aimed at China’s industrial infrastructure in southeastern China.
“Where Beijing has committed a massive blunder is that in pursuit of a defensive goal, it has acted unilaterally to claim 90 per cent of the South China Sea or West Philippine Sea. It chose an illegal shortcut, whereas it could have patiently negotiated with its Southeast Asian
neighbors that border the South China Sea to collectively demilitarize the area and keep out the Americans. Beijing has only itself to blame for having come across as a big bully, but it is not too late to rectify its relations with ASEAN…
“(I proposed several years ago) a phased demilitarization and neutralization of the South China Sea in return for the withdrawal of US bases from the Western Pacific and the abrogation of military agreements with the United States…
“Vietnam has its own conflicts with China but it has a foreign policy, the famous ‘Four Noes,’ that the Philippines could emulate—that is, the country will not join military alliances, not side with one country against another, not give other countries permission to set up military bases or use its territory to carry out military activities against other countries, and not use force—or threaten to use force—in international relations.”
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