The Philippines is preparing to detect or forecast the “Big One,” the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) announced on Thursday.
In terms of monitoring warnings, the country requires additional instruments. Currently, there are only 130 seismic monitoring stations, which is 170 stations short of the standard or required number.
To address this gap, DOST is exploring ways to acquire more sensors capable of detecting small earthquake magnitudes, as their patterns could lead to forecasting the Big One.
DOST Secretary and National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Vice Chairperson Renato Solidum Jr. stated on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction that science and technology for disaster and risk monitoring, as well as early warning systems in the country, will continue to improve.
However, he noted that preparedness and appropriate responses from people in areas vulnerable to disasters and risks cannot be guaranteed.
“What’s important is whether the local government has protocols in place. Once they receive information based on the 24-hour rainfall forecast or warnings about thunder and heavy rainfall, they should have a standard operating procedure regarding actions that local governments and residents should take,” he said.
Solidum emphasized that early warning involves more than just monitoring and forecasting systems; it is essential that the warnings or information about risks are understood to ensure effective preparedness for response.
“Without standard operating procedures at the local level, people on the ground would still get hurt despite improvements in science,” he added.
DOST also stated that disaster resilience means thriving economically rather than merely surviving crises.
Solidum explained that this can be achieved by integrating actions with education, entrepreneurship, and health, emphasizing the need to empower local citizens to make informed decisions and create information sets “relevant to their own unique contexts and situations.”
“Let us localize what we’re doing from national to local levels because the frontline of our operations concerning disaster resilience and risk reduction is at the local level,” Solidum told reporters.
Former NDRRMC Executive Director Alexander Pama mentioned during the same conference that if the “Big One” were to hit the Philippines this year, nearly 47,000 people could become casualties.
“Now, we have a population of about 14,677,000. If we extrapolate it very simply, we’re talking about a casualty figure of 46,993,” he said regarding the potential impact of the “Big One.”
The “Big One” refers to the anticipated massive earthquake that could be triggered by movement along the West Valley Fault, a major fault line running through the eastern part of Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Experts warn that this earthquake could reach a magnitude of 7.2 or higher, potentially causing widespread destruction, especially in densely populated areas.
