Political analyst and former presidential adviser Ronald Llamas weighed in on Vice President Sara Duterte’s departure from the cabinet of President Marcos, calling it a “very interesting development, even as he doubts it will contribute positively to her public trust and approval ratings.
Pundits connected Duterte’s resignation as Department of Education (DepEd) Secretary and Co-Vice Chairperson of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) on Wednesday, June 19, to her political ambitions, considering the 2025 midterm elections.
Llamas, who served as a political adviser for the late President Benigno Aquino III, said this could significantly weaken, if not entirely dismantle, the Dutertes’ senatorial slate. “This could lead to a major marginalization of the Duterte camp in the upcoming midterms,” he said in a TV interview.
While the Vice President has remained tight-lipped about her reasons for stepping down, Llamas sees this move as a potential game-changer in the Philippine political arena, especially given the complex dynamics involving the Duterte and Marcos factions.
Despite the potential blow to the Duterte slate, Llamas warned against assuming a clear path for the Marcos camp. In Philippine politics, loyalties often shift whenever elections are approaching and more so when the dust settles.
“There’s uncertainty surrounding the loyalties within Bongbong Marcos’ slate. The political allegiance of those rallying behind the administration’s candidates beyond the midterms is far from guaranteed,” he explained.
Llamas further noted the uniqueness of the current political environment, marked by high-stakes maneuvering between the Duterte and Marcos camps.
This unprecedented level of involvement by two powerhouse political families, coupled with international pressures such as those from the International Criminal Court (ICC), adds layers of complexity to the situation.
When questioned about whether Duterte’s resignation could boost her or her party’s approval ratings, Llamas expressed skepticism.
He suggested that any potential benefits would depend on whether the Vice President can use this opportunity to strengthen both her organizational leadership and the coherence of her political message.
“For this resignation to be advantageous, Sara would need to consolidate not only her leadership base but also the narrative of the Duterte camp. Often, their messages have been contradictory, with differing statements from her father, spokesperson Harry Roque, and herself,” Llamas observed.
He added, “If Sara can lead effectively and unify both their base and their messaging, it could indeed turn into a positive development. However, managing her father’s influence remains a significant challenge.”
A recent OCTA Research survey conducted from March 24-27, 2024, revealed a significant drop in her popularity: trust ratings fell to 68 percent, down from 77 percent in December 2023, while approval ratings decreased to 64 percent, an 11 percent drop.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated article. Originally posted with the headline “Analyst breaks down the potential impact of Marcos-Duterte political breakup”.