Cash remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are expected to rise 3 percent in 2025 to about $35.5 billion from the projected $34.5 billion in 2024, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said over the weekend.
This also follows the similar 3.0-percent growth projected in 2024 from $33.5 billion in 2023.
The figures are based on the updated balance of payments (BOP) assumptions of the BSP for 2024 and 2025.
Data showed the cash remittances grew 2.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2024 to $25.2 billion.
Meanwhile, business process outsourcing (BPO) revenues are seen rising 6 percent in 2025 to $33 billion from the projected $31.2 billion in 2024.
Travel receipts are also expected to increase 20 percent in 2025 to $12.6 billion from the projected $10.5 billion in 2024.
The BSP reduced the growth forecasts for both goods and services exports in 2024 alongside higher projected services imports.
The latest growth forecast for services exports is anchored on the expected deceleration of revenue inflows coming from the BPO and travel activities, consistent with latest trend driven in part by domestic constraints in AI adoption and slow return of Chinese tourists into the country, the BSP said.
“In addition, merchandise exports are seen to deliver a more subdued performance in 2024 following the more pronounced slowdown in export revenues in the third quarter of 2024 reflecting the decline in exports of semiconductor products, copper metal and bananas,” it said.
“Expectations of softer global demand amid tight monetary conditions, post-pandemic fiscal consolidation, as well as larger trade barriers and increased uncertainty from President-elect Trump’s announced policies also continue to weigh down the near-term prospects for goods exports,” the BSP said.
It said that for 2025, the overall BOP is anticipated to remain in a surplus position despite the foreseen widening of the current account relative to the 2024 forecast.
Sustained net inflows from the financial account will continue to buoy the overall BOP outlook this year, it said.
