"Many countries in Europe are locking down again."
Just as the world is getting accustomed to living with COVID-19 after almost seven months under various levels of lockdown, we read reports that a second wave of infections is gripping a number of countries particularly in Europe. The exponential rise in infections in the UK, Germany, France, Spain and smaller countries like Belgium – all of whom had somehow eased restrictions to allow more travel and interactions during the summer months — has alarmed governments they are now poised to declare a return to more restrictive measures.
Reports have it that the level of infections are now higher than in March and April across these countries to the point that the re-introduction of varying levels of restrictions short of nationwide lockdowns is all set to be imposed.
The second wave is indeed alarming. During the first wave, France’s daily new case numbers reached a peak of just over 7,500. Its new peak recorded last October 20 reached more than three times higher with 26,675 new cases recorded in just 24 hours. On the other hand, Spain recorded a high of over 30,000 cases last week, with more than 20,000 of these coming from the Madrid region alone. Last October 15, Germany experienced its highest daily increase in cases since reaching its peak last April alarming no less than Prime Minister Angela Merkel who has called for a return to focused or targeted restrictions.
The move towards targeted, localized restrictions instead of the nationwide lockdowns during the first months of the pandemic has become the weapon of choice among countries experiencing a spike in infections. In France, which is experiencing a double whammy of sorts with a fresh wave of terrorist attacks in the cities of Paris and Nice, President Emmanuel Macron has ordered the reimposition of restrictions in many urban areas setting limits to the capacity levels of restaurants and classrooms, and closing bars and gyms. Taking no chances, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez introduced travel restrictions to and from Madrid, now the epicenter of the second wave of infections with 20,000 cases in one day alone, and has also ordered limiting capacities in restaurants and cafes and the numbers in public gatherings.
UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson, on the other hand, has resisted imposing a nationwide lockdown despite a record number of cases. Instead, his government has opted for “a balanced approach” enforcing a three-tier alert system across the country — medium, high, and very high — depending on the severity of the outbreak. In Germany, the European role model for its successful approach to combating the virus, the return to focused lockdown after the celebration of its world renowned Oktoberfest has seen its capital, Berlin, famed for its rich nightlife, imposing its first curfew in 70 years.
These fresh spikes in infections did not come as a surprise to most experts. In an ongoing research project by Imperial College experts, it was found out that many of those surveyed had relaxed their behavior going into the summer months. After months in quarantine, majority of them sensed regained freedom and felt a lesser need to adhere to health protocols particularly physical distancing as restaurants, cafes and bar opened up to the wee hours of the morning.
Researchers surmised that this second wave points to an element of restriction fatigue after months of restrictions on daily life and the urge to jumpstart the economy before deep recession sets in. The new, innovative ways to balance the public calls to save lives and save livelihoods which European authorities envisioned could be the key to live with the pandemic fell short of expectations.
In the US, restriction fatigue has taken center stage in the run up to Election Day on November 3. President Trump and his rival, Democrat Joe Biden, have unleashed ads showing contrasting scenarios on how the world’s biggest economy and most infected country aims to live with the virus. Trump has consistently been riling against restrictions as anathema to the American way of life valuing individual freedom and has defied medical and science experts in a bid to open up the economy. On the other hand, Biden has been promoting more restrictions to movements and gatherings earning the derisive tag of lockdown king. We will soon know how America proceeds in devising ways to live with COVID-19, a development which can affect heavily how well we ourselves will be living with the virus.
Truth be told, these new set of restrictions though targeted in the case of Europe and probably even in the US as well no matter who wins, will definitely slow down the economies of these countries the negative effects of which will cascade all the way to our part of the world. It should be pointed out that even with the increasing Chinese presence, these countries combined remain the biggest export markets, the biggest source of investments and technology for most of the Asia-Pacific countries. Prolonged slowdown caused by these various stages of lockdowns will drag down any kind of economic restarts which we are all hoping for. If President Trump wins re-election the projected trajectory of his signature “America First” plan will make restart even harder.
In that eventuality, we will have no other choice but to look inward and rev up whatever margins of the economy which can still be tweaked. Which is why the early enactment of the 2021 budget becomes critical. Properly disbursed and implemented, the hundreds of billions of pesos in funding for work in the key sectors – infrastructure, health, agriculture and education – can tide us over the many challenges which the new year will surely bring. For one, infrastructure spending will open up more jobs, disperse economic opportunities to the countryside and get many of the small and medium enterprises restart their businesses. Enhanced push for agricultural production coupled with a slowdown in imports can reinvigorate our farmers and agricultural producers.
In a word, the expected global economic slowdown owing to the continuing threat of the pandemic should serve as an impetus for us to scan the horizon for new ways to move the economy forward and discover opportunities beyond the usual.