"The DOH must find a satisfactory explanation."
"The DOH must find a satisfactory explanation."
No matter how many times the Department of Health keeps saying that the COVID-19 situation is getting better, it is actually getting worse. This is because the benchmark of a successful campaign against the disease in the absence of a vaccine is still the reduction or elimination of infections and not a higher number of hospital beds or better capability to treat patients. The main reason given by the President when he declared a lockdown on March 15 was to save Filipino lives even at the expense of the economy. This was also the consensus of the members of the Inter-Agency Task Force which recommended the lockdown.
All businesses dutifully followed the order. But after months of strict quarantine, the economy is spiraling downward and the infection rate is skyrocketing instead of going down. In spite of this, the government is shifting to a new strategy. Now, the health of the economy is a factor. The government wants to do two things at the same time. Get the economy back on track while trying to control infection.
The problem however, is that increased mobility means more infections. From what can be deduced from the daily government briefings, it appears that our leaders are willing to tolerate an increase in infection so long as we have the capability to treat and hospitalize patients.
This would be a risky move. One reason for this change is perhaps because for the past several days, DOH has been saying that the COVID-19 situation is actually improving. The number of deaths has been slowing and that recoveries have greatly improved. But whether this is due to the outstanding work of the DOH is another matter. It could be that the COVID-19 strain infecting people now have become less virulent that is why fewer people are dying and more are recovering. This phenomenon has also been observed in the United States.
Regardless of the reason, we should be thankful for this good turn of events. Simple mathematics will tell us, however, that if the infections will continue to sky rocket, it means more deaths like in the last few days where deaths have been hitting double-digit numbers. The general community quarantine for Metro Manila was extended to June 30 but tightened in Cebu because of the huge increase of infections.
For Metro Manila, I take this move to mean that the government is unsure of what to do next and is biding for time hoping that the situation will improve in the next two weeks.
It could also be that there is some kind of conflict of ideas among IATF members that is why it was left to the President to make the decision. Vince Dizon who is in charge of testing, for instance, has not been seen or heard on TV for several days. Dr. Tony Leachon, an adviser to the IATF, was reported to have criticized the DOH for “lack of focus on everything, poor execution of plans and data management, questionable priorities and others.” If this is true, then the management of the pandemic is in serious trouble.
The DOH must also find a satisfactory and acceptable explanation for why the infection rate has been increasing alarmingly. At the current rate, we will surely overtake Indonesia and Singapore to become the worst performing country in the ASEAN region. If there is trouble, the IATF must pull itself together to be able to provide the President with the best possible decision. That, after all, is what crisis management is all about—making the right and timely decision in a situation that could either worsen or improve at any time.
Lately, some of the recent actions of the IATF have been puzzling. For instance, the report that 50,000 contact tracers will be recruited on July is inexplicable. Why wait until July when the need is now? Do it in July and work will start maybe late August or September because it is not easy to recruit and train 50,000 people. By that time, 50,000 contact tracers might not be enough.
Another is not planning for the millions of people stranded in different cities and provinces who cannot go home. The original sin, of course, is the failure to test and trace when the pandemic started which is the reason why we are where we are today. Part of the problem it seems is that the IATF is trying to do all things at the same time which is difficult due to limited resources. Maybe prioritizing activities could help but all the problems seem to be of equal importance. We can only sympathize with the enormity of the IATF mission. But it cannot be an excuse for failure.