By keeping Metro Manila and other areas under a general community quarantine (GCQ), the government is hoping to avert a projection that the number of coronavirus cases in the country would reach 40,000 by the end of June, Malacañang said Tuesday.
READ: NCR remains under general community quarantine (GCQ)
Experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) arrived at the 40,000 figure—nearly double the current number of cases at 26,781 as of 4 p.m. Tuesday—based on their own study, which Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque admitted was “more or less” happening at present.
The UP experts' recommendation was taken into consideration when the government decided to keep the National Capital Region (NCR) under GCQ from June 16 to 30, Roque said on the “Unang Hirit” TV show on GMA-7.
This developed as the Palace said government’s effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is showing promising signs of leveling off the infection rate, despite the rise of new cases, Malacañang said Tuesday.
READ: PH death rate declining but new cases up
Roque said the doubling rate for the entire country is now up to 10 days and slowed during the more than two months under a lockdown.
“Our mortality rate is also under 10 daily. So these are important details that prove that our lockdown works and since our lockdown is working, we are sure what we will do again in Cebu City and Talisay will still work,” Roque said, referring to a spike in new infections in those two cities.
While many areas have been put under less strict quarantine restrictions, Cebu City has been has reverted to an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), while Talisay has been placed under a modified ECQ.
Metro Manila, which continues to record new cases, will remain under a general community quarantine (GCQ) until June 30 because its doubling time has slowed.
Placing Cebu City under the ECQ again is meant to curb the widespread transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic there, Roque said.
"If we cannot contain the spread of the disease in Cebu City, there is a big chance that this will spread in different parts of the Visayas,” Roque told reporters.
Some 76 percent of the villages in Cebu City, or 61 of the 80 barangays, have active cases of COVID-19. Thirteen of these are considered "worst-hit" barangays by the Department of Health.
READ: DND opting for modified GCQ
Talisay City, also in Cebu province, was placed under the modified ECQ until the end of the month.
The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Infectious Diseases (IATF) recommended that Metro Manila stay under a GCQ, even though half of the COVID-19 cases in the countrty are recorded in the NCR.
Other areas that will be under GCQ until June 30 are Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and Santiago City in Cagayan Valley; Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Olongapo, Tarlac in Central Luzon; Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon in Calabarzon; Occidental Mindoro in Mimaropa all in Luzon; Bohol, Cebu province, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Mandaue City, and Lapu-Lapu City in the Visayas; and Davao City and Zamboanga City in Mindanao.
The Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday reported a single-day record of 301 COVID-19 patients who recovered from the disease, even as total infections climbed to 26,781.
It was the sixth straight day that new recoveries have surpassed 150. Total recoveries stood at 6,552.
Of the 364 newly reported cases, 249 were “fresh”—or recorded within the last three days—while 115 were “late”—or with results released four days ago or more.
READ: DOH targets to test 1.65M Pinoys end-July
Of the fresh cases, 128 are from Metro Manila, 56 are from Region 7 (Central Visayas), and 65 are from other regions or do not have location information.
Meanwhile, 24 of the late cases are from Metro Manila, three are from Region 7, and 88 are from other areas.
There were also five new COVID-related deaths reported, raising the total fatalities in the country to 1,103.
The DOH said that it removed three cases from the total number of confirmed cases after they were “verified to be negative.” One of them was initially reported to have recovered.
“The total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation,” the DOH said in its bulletin.
The DOH started reclassifying additional cases into fresh and late cases in late May to assure the public that the spike in new patients was because of delays in validation. This was to allay fears that the government is failing to curb the spread of the virus.
The agency also started putting disclaimers in its number of new deaths, also because of the recent increase in reported fatalities. It said a large number of the recently reported deaths were from previous months as far back as April.
At a virtual press conference Monday, Health Undersecretary Dr. Maria Rosario Vergeire discussed the efficacy of the government’s health initiatives and the country’s way forward with members of the University of the Philippines’ independent COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team.
Before the ECQ was declared, the Pandemic Response Team had projected that the country would see as many of 80,000 new cases in a day, said Emmanuel Baja of the response team.
“But yesterday, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Philippines was only 539. At the start of the ECQ, the highest count was 1,000 cases in a day,” he said in Filipino.
The recovery rate has been increasing while the case fatality rate (CFR) has also been steadily decreasing. The recovery rate is currently at 22.96 percent while the CFR is at 4.24 percent. Baja said this is a good indicator that the health system was well-prepared and that health care workers are now more capable of dealing with the illness.
Baja, along with the other members of the response team such as the Executive Director of UP Resilience Institute Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay and UP Executive Vice-President Dr. Teodoro Herbosa, emphasized the importance of public cooperation.
As the economy slowly begins to reopen, more people are finding themselves outside and potentially exposed to the virus. Vergeire appealed to the public to continue following the health guidelines such as physical distancing, use of masks, frequent hand washing and proper hygiene and limiting time spent in high-risk locations.