Expect an early termination of the northeast monsoon or “hanging amihan” because of the El Niño phenomenon.
Ana Liza Solis, the state weather bureau’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief, said temperatures would go up even in Metro Manila.
Moreover, she said there would be no tropical cyclones to enter the Philippine area of responsibility in the next two months.
Minimal easterlies, and isolated and local thunderstorms are expected.
The Department of Energy, for its part, said it expects no yellow or red alert this year despite the anticipated prolonged El Nino.
“Based on the power outlook presented to us, every week we have apower outlook, so far we do not see yellow alerts or red alerts. One of the things that we are counting on…we should conserve (electricity),” Energy Undersecretary Rowena Guevara said at the sidelines of the agency’s Business to Business Matching Event.
She said DOE has already forecast potential electricity consumption this year and if it goes beyond the forecast, “we will have a problem.”
“That’s why we are saying, let us maintain our conservation of energy,” Guevara said.
She said Luzon has enough power supply with a forecast available margin of about 300 megawatts to 700 MW even with the 70 percent of the hydro reduction.
Guevara said Visayas’ supply margin is thin—”anywhere from 8 percent”—so power supply is critical while Mindanao is expecting higher supply margins of 25 to 30 percent.
“The only possible thing that might happen is that you might have to run the more expensive plants, the rates will go up. But then, there is enough electricity. The cost of no electricity is P300 per kWh. Wedid some simulation for that. Do you want to lose P300 per kWh? We don’t want that,” she said.
Guevara earlier said no potential alert notices are expected in 2024provided the critical assumptions are achieved.
Guevara said generation companies, with the assistance of the DOE and other government agencies, must ensure that their committed power generation projects will meet target commercial operation date.