“The UN chief has said the level of fossil fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable“
One week into the climate conference, the Global Stocktake (GST) draft text has not been as truly reflective of the situation in the grassroots and not as ambitious as we want it to be.
To be able to get consensus on the GST that will determine how countries will consequently adjust their national climate commitments and plans, immense political push is required.
This is the second part of the excerpt from the think piece I shared in my last column Titled “The Global Stocktake: A Reckoning for Leaders” that I co-wrote with Dr. Mark Bynoe from Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre and Jayvy R. Gamboa from Manila Observatory.
This is a knowledge product of Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), a consortium of think tanks and experts elevating the needs and priorities of vulnerable developing countries to deliver ambitious, balanced, just, and equitable outcomes at the UN climate negotiations and chart a path toward greater global solidarity, of which Manila Observatory is a partner.
The full article may be found at https://www.wri.org/initiatives/allied-climate-transformation-act2025/resources/global-stocktake-reckoning-leaders.
At and beyond COP28, the outcomes of the first GST will set expectations for leaders to respond with unequivocal commitment, act with urgency and ambition, deliver scaled up support, and accelerate just transitions for a climate resilient future that keeps 1.5°C within reach.
Achieving such commitments is not a foregone conclusion.
At the technical level, it will require sufficient clarity about the commitments to be undertaken, what must be done, by whom, and by when. Consideration will have to be given to follow up on the GST outcomes, how they will inform countries’ 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions, and how the GST links to other existing UNFCCC processes. For example:
1. The linkage to the Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme will be critical as a possible forum to address any follow-up from the GST recommendations on mitigation, including on sector-specific commitments and the scaling up of finance and support in this regard.
2. Other linkages that could be considered as relevant for follow-up on GST recommendations could include the Just Transition’s Work Programme (modalities for which will be agreed at COP28) and the Ad Hoc Work Programme on the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance (which will result in the establishment of a new climate finance goal at COP29 in 2024).
3. The finalization of the framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, which is expected to have targets and indicators, will also be an important part of the package on adaptation. Additionally, COP28 will consider a report on the status of the doubling of adaptation finance, and this will be another aspect of the package. It would be important to ensure coherence with these processes and to ensure linkages thereto in the GST outcomes.
4. All countries must submit new NDCs by no later than 2025 that reflect higher ambition and greater resilience based on the findings of IPCC reports and the outcomes of the global stocktake.
At the political level, it will require courageous leadership.
Against this backdrop, leaders are expected to reckon with the paucity of action, the weakness of ambition, the dearth of support, and the disproportionate burden on the vulnerable.
Leaders must ensure that the GST, as a crux of the ambition mechanism of the Paris Agreement, prompts specific actions to springboard greater ambition across all elements of climate action-mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and means of implementation-with equity and fairness considerations at the center.
The GST outcomes need full political support from all countries to inform the new round of NDCs and elicit the requisite financial and technical support from the developed countries.
The Global Stocktake process is key for accelerating progress toward a resilient, net zero world-it will set the stage for leaders to do more to improve, to deliver on past promises, and to be bold with new ones.
In this climate battle in Dubai, I echo the words of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres:
“The air is unbreathable. The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable.
“Leaders must lead.
“No more hesitancy. No more excuses. No more waiting for others to move first.
“There is simply no more time for that.”
