Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties and livelihoods and could hamper the country’s ambition to become an upper middle-income country by 2040, the World Bank said Wednesday.
It said that with 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population, it said.
The bank said any policy inaction on the part of the government to address climate change would result in around 5.7 percent to 7.5 percent reduction in GDP by 2040.
Benoit Bosquet, the bank’s regional director for sustainable development in East Asia and Pacific, said in an online briefing that climate change would likely reduce GDP substantially, but the range of possible outcomes would be wide.
Bosquet said the sectors that would be hardly hit are water, agriculture, energy, transport and urban areas.
“Rainfed crops will be mostly affected and this might result in low agricultural production that will impact the farmers and the poor,” he said, adding this would eventually result in higher food prices.
“Even under conservative estimates, climate change will reduce GDP by 5.7 to 7.5 percent by 2040,” Bosquet said.
He said the good news is that adaptation actions could reduce the impact of climate change to the poor.
“[The] Philippines needs to take action to avoid worsening the problem,” he said, citing the country’s number one ranking in the 2022 World Index in terms of vulnerability from climate change.
The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report presented by Bosquet said that climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines.
Climate shocks, whether in the form of extreme weather events or slow-onset trends—will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure and induce deep social disruptions, it said.
The report analyzes how climate change will affect the country’s ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient and inclusive development.
It said adapting to the risks of climate change—including extreme events and slow-onset problems—would be critical for the Philippines.
“The investment costs of such adaptation measures and energy transition are substantial but not out of reach. A large part of decarbonizing the power system has a relatively low incremental system cost compared with the government’s current plan, mainly involving further expanding renewables such as solar, whose cost is declining,” the report said.