Skopje”•North Macedonians returned to the ballot box on a rainy Sunday for a presidential run-off that risks creating a headache for the ruling Social Democrats, whose candidate is pitted against a nationalist-backed rival.
Turnout figures will be as important as who takes the lead, with 40 percent of the electorate needed to vote to validate the poll.
The two candidates, the ruling party’s Stevo Pendarovski and right-wing favorite Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, finished in a near dead heat in the first round last month.
Their tie traced the split between pro-West and nationalist camps who have clashed over the government’s recent move to change the country’s name to North Macedonia, which ended a long-running row with Greece.
But record-low turnout in the first round, at barely over 41 percent, also reflected a failure to galvanize most of the 1.8 million voters.
If it sinks below 40 percent Sunday, the entire poll will be annulled, threatening a new period of political uncertainty in one of Europe’s poorest states.
Prime Minister Zoran Zaev is confident “the elections will succeed”.
But if not, he said he would call a snap parliamentary poll.
The presidential vote would also likely be re-run from the start, though Zaev has floated other options involving constitutional changes.
While the presidency is a largely ceremonial role, the office can exercise veto powers that complicate governing.
The current president, opposition-backed Gjorge Ivanov, has been refusing to sign bills since the country changed its name to North Macedonia in protest against the deal.
The small, landlocked state has weathered repeated bouts of political turmoil in recent years, with nearly 10 elections in the past decade doing little to boost public faith in politicians.
Low wages and high unemployment have deepened the disillusionment.
“I think that people are a little fed up with voting,” said Katerina Gjorgjioska, a 23-year-old hotel receptionist in Skopje, rattling off the number of elections in recent years.
“Young people are disappointed with the situation in this country. And that’s why I think many leave,” she said, referring to huge waves of emigration that have sowed fears of a “brain drain” crisis.
Turnout on Sunday will be a “challenge” in light of “election fatigue and low voter enthusiasm”, said David Stephenson, a political consultant based in Skopje.
But he said the tight first round could spark more energy for the run-off.
“What’s important is to elect a president in a free, fair, and democratic process,” he added.
“Failure to do so risks another period of political instability, which would likely harm the country’s European perspective and damage economic growth.”
Zaev says he will also call an early general election in the event of a loss by 56-year-old Pendarovski, who is championing the administration’s efforts to forge closer links with the West.
A victory by Siljanovska-Davkova, 63, would be a clear rebuke to a government that staked its reputation on passing the name accord with Greece earlier this year.
The addition of “North” to the name was a compromise to end a nearly 30-year identity row with Athens, who had blocked Skopje’s NATO and EU ambitions.
It remains divisive and a key talking point for candidates, with Pendarovski for the deal and Siljanovska-Davkova against.
Siljanovska-Davkova, a university law professor, has framed her campaign around tackling corruption, under the slogan “Justice for Macedonia, the fatherland calls.”
Macedonia’s ethnic Albanian minority, which makes up around a quarter of the population, could prove decisive.
Their presidential candidate, Blerim Reka, dropped out after garnering 11 percent in the first round.
He has not publicly backed either of the two front runners by name, but he has urged Albanians to vote for the “pro-Western agenda”, which Pendarovski espouses.
The polls opened at 0500 GMT and will close at 1700 GMT.