There are reports that three women —Davao City Mayor and presidential daughter Sara Duterte Carpio, Ilocos Norte Gov. Imee Marcos and House Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo—have changed the political landscape. Now there is speculation: What will happen next?
First, that national political parties like Lakas, PDP-Laban and Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist People’s Coalition will gravitate and even join with Sara’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago, a regional political party, to make their alliance national in character.
Second, with Gloria now as Speaker, there will be a move to change the federal-presidential form of government to a federal-parliamentary form to make the post of prime minister possible.
Third, since it’s the last year of Gloria as a member of Congress, granting that former senator Bongbong Marcos wins his protest against Vice President Leni Robredo before the 2019 elections, Bongbong then becomes the president of the new federal-parliamentary form of government, with Gloria as prime minister.
I do not know if these events will come about, but developments on the ground indicate they could be possible. Isn’t politics the art of the possible?
As of now, while the political landscape remains as fluid as ever, the no-election push of Alvarez and his cohorts in Congress has been rendered useless. And since it will be up to Congress to go or not for a presidential-federal form of government, speculation is the order of the day.
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Former President Arroyo’s test of leadership as Speaker comes with the battle for minority—no less than four groups are claiming that they should be the minority. The minority is supposed to be the fiscalizer of the majority group led by the Speaker.
One group is led by House Deputy Speaker Romero Quimbo. He led 12 legislators to abstain from the voting for the new Speaker. They are mostly of the Liberal Party.
Another group is led by Quezon Rep. Danilo Suarez who is loyal to GMA. The third group is that of former Speaker Alvarez and former majority leader, Ilocos Norte Rep. Rodolfo Fariñas.
The fourth is the Makabayan bloc led by party-list Rep. Antonio Tinio.
Coming right down to it, whoever becomes the minority group is actually the call of the Speaker. The problem is that of Gloria chooses one over the others, the others might complain.
There is speculation that the new Speaker may just let things be with four groups acting as the minority.
Whatever Gloria decides, she must know she cannot please everybody.
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Another political issue coming up is the emergence of some members of the ruling PDP-Laban political party that ousted Senator Koko Pimentel as president and Pantaleon Alvarez as secretary-general.
In the wake of accusations from Pimentel that those who ousted him as president were usurpers out to destroy the party, President Duterte was reported by his special assistant Bong Go as ready to set up a caucus to unify the ruling party.
I am not sure if Mr. Duterte can still prevent the ruling party from disintegrating, when some of its members are gravitating toward the regional party of Sara Duterte.
In any case, the President can always try.
The problem, however, is that Pimentel is no longer Senate president and Alvarez is no longer Speaker. So how can they lead the ruling party when they are no longer in power?
The splinter group now claiming to be the real PDP-Laban, and which still maintains Duterte as chairman, may be headed by some unknown personalities. The reality is that PDP-Laban, despite the chairmanship of Duterte, is headed for extinction unless it joins with Sara.
In fact, there is speculation that PDP-Laban may just be absorbed by Sara’s regional party.
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Former President BS Aquino posed this question: What can Gloria do as Speaker because she only has a few more months? The 17th Congress is now in its last session.
Aquino obviously does not think much of Gloria. After all he had her arrested and detained for almost four years.
Gloria has already dropped the move of Alvarez and his cohorts to have a no-election scenario next year. She may even move for charter change under a federal-parliamentary system. This will validate what some people say—that she may just become prime minister under a new Constitution.
My gulay, BS Aquino should not belittle what a Speaker can do.
With Gloria heading Congress, we expect economic reforms. She is, after all, an economist.
The Bangsamoro Organic Law has been signed into law by the President. It has been praised here and abroad. A question remains, though—will it please all the stakeholders?
Even the President himself is wary that the law will not please everybody. Even now, the residents of Cotabato City are expressing their concerns. Nur Misuari of the Moro National Liberation Front has not come out in favor if it. This has led the President to say that the BOL can always be modified in favor of all those who are concerned.
It cannot be denied that the Duterte administration has moved closer to lasting peace. By all means, this is a step toward the right direction. Who can argue with that?
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In another attempt by the President to make peace with the Muslims, he has also expressed a desire to talk peace with the Abu Sayyaf Group in Basilan and Sulu.
I am wary about this move. The Abu Sayyaf is a terror group that wants to establish a caliphate in Mindanao.
Santa Banana, you do not negotiate with terrorists. Their agenda is to create panic to achieve their ends.
Security groups and even the Department of National Defense have established that fact that the Abu Sayyaf is already allied with IS. So what is left to talk about?
And besides, the ASG has already made kidnapping for ransom their industry. Why stop doing something when they are already profiting from it?
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