Money sent home by Filipinos working overseas fell 3 percent in October to $2.1 billion from $2.16 billion a year ago, as the currencies of most host countries fell against the US dollar and amid stiffer competition in the supply of seafarers.
Data from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed the October remittances were the lowest in three months.
Bangko Sentral said despite the October slump, cash remittances in the first 10 months still rose 4 percent to $22.124 billion from $21.266 billion a year ago.
Cash remittances from sea-based workers declined 11.1 percent in October while those from land-based workers fell 0.6 percent. “Stiffer competition in the supply of seafarers, particularly from East Asia and Eastern Europe, has contributed to the declining trend in sea-based remittances,” it said.
“The lower US dollar value of remittances in October may also be partly due to the depreciation of major host countries’ currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar, such as the pound sterling and the euro,” it said.
Remittances from the United Kingdom dropped 5.9 percent in October even as the volume of remittances in original currency (pound) increased 16.5 percent.
Meanwhile, personal remittances, which include non-cash items, also fell to a three-month low of $2.326 billion, down 2.8 percent from $2.392 billion a year ago. Despite the decline, personal remittances in the first 10 months grew 3.9 percent to $24.434 billion from $23.514 billion a year earlier.
Personal remittances from land-based workers with work contracts of one year or more amounted to $19 billion while those from sea-based and land-based workers with work contracts of less than one year totaled $5.1 billion.
Bangko Sentral Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo earlier said remittances would continue to be stable in the coming months.
Guinigundo said a factor that could contribute to the stability of remittances would be the development of new markets, aside from the Middle Eastern countries.
DBS Bank of Singapore said foreign remittances would likely reach $27 billion this year, a decent 5.5-percent increase from 2015.
“Strong remittances have been a factor that contributes to the 7-percent average in private consumption growth thus far this year. The government is a little more cautious on the outlook for remittances next year. This is understandable given what is happening in key markets for Filipinos working overseas,” DBS said.
“For example, there has been fear of massive replacement of foreign workers in places like Saudi Arabia as well as the anticipated tighter immigration laws in the US under President Trump. Not that we expect a marked dip in the remittances number next year, but we may see growth tapering off,” it said.
Cash remittances grew 4.6 percent to a record $25.767 billion in 2015 from $24.628 billion in 2014.
