Even in the days when it was known as Highway 54, Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (Edsa) already had the potential to become a negative influence on life in this country’s premier metropolis—the National Capital Region—and a major source of loss for the NCR and national economies. The Filipino people knew that the loss figure would be very high, but they did not expect it to be as high as the recent Japan International Cooperation Agency estimate of P2.4 billion per day.
The root of the Edsa problem, which the new administration has upgraded to a “crisis” deserving of emergency powers for the new Chief Executive, is the fact that NCR’s premier thoroughfare traverses seven of its 17 components, including the gateways to Northern Luzon (Quezon City), Rizal province (Pasig City) and Southern Luzon (Makati City). In terms of length and position, there is only one thoroughfare capable of serving as an alternative to Edsa, to wit, C-5 (Carlos P. Garcia Avenue). Together with Manila, the seven cities account for close to 75 percent of NCR’s vehicular traffic.
A look at the map of the NCR indicates that only two thoroughfares—Edsa and C-5—run in a north-south direction. Only two major thoroughfares—Quezon Avenue-Commonwealth Avenue and Ortigas Avenue—run in an east-west direction. From this fact one can deduce the enormous pressure on Edsa and C-5 for carrying people and goods into, within and out of the metropolis. Edsa and C-5 are simply overworked. They need relief, and quickly.
Unfortunately, relief can come from only two sources. The first has to do with infrastructure. The second factor relates to the use of Edsa for the efficient movement of people and goods. In economic-theory terms, the first is the supply side of the equation and the latter is the demand side.
Economics students are taught that for the attainment of price stability—and socio-political stability as well—the supply and the demand for a thing must be in or close to equilibrium. When disequilibrium is the case, there has to be adjustment on either the supply side or the demand side to bring the market situation back to equilibrium.
Unfortunately, in the context of today’s Edsa, an equilibrium-restoring change in the near-term market equation is not possible without a drastic adjustment on either the supply side or the demand side. The word ‘drastic’ should be noted. The only changes that have been possible on the Edsa supply situation have been the avenue’s maximum-possible widening and the construction of three overhead light-railway lines. There is no further room for Edsa widening; the road engineers have gone as far as they can go.
Given the sustained increase in Edsa traffic over the years, a state of excessive demand was bound to come into being. New private cars and additional buses—from within the metropolis and from the nearby provinces—just keep coming into the market. Aggressive selling by the car makers working closely with the banks has made car ownership more widely accessible, and lax enforcement of the land-transportation regulations has placed more and more buses and SUVs on Edsa.
To curb the number of cars and buses on Edsa—at least on one day every week—the Metro Manila Development Authority and the transport agencies put in place the number-coding scheme. That scheme has worked only as far as it goes, i.e., reduced the number of EDSA-using cars one day every week; the situation on the other days of the week remains very bad. From time to time there is talk, within the regulatory agencies and in the media, of forbidding the registration of new private cars, which are the No.1 users of Edsa. Whether that idea will prosper, one cannot say. What is certain is that there has to be a sharp adjustment on the demand side of the Edsa equation.
One of the benefits being touted with regard to the request for emergency powers for the President of the Philippines is the facilitation of the process of right-of-way acquisition. But even if the facilitation came to pass, any new Edsa-related facility is at least three years away. The much-needed first subway line, if started tomorrow, would take at least five years to construct.
Whichever approach is taken toward bringing the Edsa situation to equilibrium—whether from the demand side or the supply side—two things are certain. One is that the Eda standstill is taking a heavy economic and psychological toll on the populations of Metro Manila and the surrounding provinces. The other is that whichever approach is decided upon will have to be drastic in nature. Proponents of cosmetic or half-baked solutions need not apply.
E-mail: rudyromero777@yahoo.com