SENATOR Grace Poe took the solo lead in the latest ABS-CBN Pre-Electoral National Survey, conducted among 4,000 registered voters by Pulse Asia Research Inc., from March 15 to 20.
With 28 percent saying they would vote for Poe, the neophyte senator pulled ahead of her rivals for the presidency, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte (24 percent), Vice President Jejomar C. Binay (23 percent), former Interior and Local Government secretary Manuel A. Roxas II (19 percent), and Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (2 percent).
Only four percent of registered voters were not inclined to support any of the presidential candidates.
Poe was the favored presidential candidate in the rest of Luzon (35 percent) while Roxas has the led in the Visayas (37 percent).
Among Mindanaoans, the top choice for the post was Duterte (43 percent).
Poe and Duterte shared the lead in Metro Manila (31 percent and 30 percent, respectively), Class ABC (30 percent and 32 percent, respectively), and Class D (27 percent and 25 percent, respectively). Those in Class E were most supportive of Poe and Binay (30 percent and 28 percent, respectively).
The survey, which used face-to-face interviews, has a margin of error of ± 1.5 percent at a confidence level of 95 percent on the national level. Regional estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95 percent confidence level: ± 4.6 percent for Metro Manila, ± 2.3 percent for the rest of Luzon and ± 3.4 percent for Visayas and ± 3.3 for Mindanao.
Should their first choice for president end up not running in the May 2016 elections, 29 percent of registered voters would instead vote for Poe.
Binay, Duterte, and Roxas register essentially the same second-choice presidential voter preferences (15 percent to 18 percent).
Santiago was the alternative presidential candidate of seven percent of registered voters. Almost two out of every 10 Filipino registered voters (17 percent) did not identify a second choice for president.
In the vice presidential race, Senators Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and Francis Escudero shared the lead, with each at 25 percent.
In second place was Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo (21 percent) while Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano occupied third place (14 percent).
Essentially the same percentages of registered voters either supported Senators Gregorio Honasan II (5 percent) or Antonio Trillanes IV (four percent) or were not inclined to elect any vice presidential candidate (five percent).
In Metro Manila, Marcos has a clear lead over the other vice presidential bets with 41 percent.
Robredo is the top choice in the Visayas (34 percent) while Cayetano enjoyed a lead in Mindanao (28 percent).
Marcos and Escudero were the most preferred vice presidential candidate in the rest of Luzon (32 percent and 29 percent, respectively), Class ABC (35 percent and 23 percent, respectively), and Class D (27 percent and 25 percent, respectively). Those in Class E were most supportive of the candidacies of Escudero (25 percent) and Robredo (23 percent).
Filipino registered voters identify an average of seven of their favored senatorial candidates while only 35 percent of registered voters have a complete senatorial slate for the May 2016 elections; 12 out of 50 senatorial candidates are making it to the winners’ circle.
With less than two months to go before the May 2016 elections, registered voters are naming a mean of seven and a median of eight preferred senatorial candidates out of a maximum of 12.
Out of the 50 personalities seeking a seat in the Senate, 12 have a statistical chance of making it to the winners’ circle. Of these probable winners, practically all of whom are either former or incumbent members of Congress, five belong to the Liberal Party (LP), four are independent candidates, and the Akbayan Party List Group, Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), and United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) have one candidate each. Only 5.6 percentof Filipino registered voters do not have any preferred senatorial candidates.
Sharing the top spot are Senator Vicente Sotto III (53.6 percent) and Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (51.0 percent), both of whom are ranked 1st to 2nd places. Two former senators were in 3rd to 4th places – former senators Francis Pangilinan (47.6 percent) and Panfilo M. Lacson (45.2 percent).
Two other former senators who are among the probable winners in May 2016 are Juan Miguel Zubiri (40.0 percent, 5th place) and Richard Gordon (36.0 percent, 6th to 11th places).
Five candidates share 6th to 12th places – Sarangani Rep. Emmanuel Pacquiao (35.7 percent), former Akbayan party-list Rep. Risa Hontiveros (34.3 percent), Senator Sergio R. Osmeña III (34.2 percent), former Technical Education and Skills Development Authority director general Emmanuel Villanueva (34.0 percent), and former Justice secretary Leila M. de Lima (33.8 percent).
Senator Ralph Recto completes the list of probable winners in the May 2016 senatorial elections (32.8 percent, 7th to 12th places).
Poe, who had expected a larger bump in the polls after the Supreme Court declared her qualified to run for president, said the fact that she was only slightly ahead was proof that she needs to work harder and that there were indeed “heavyweights” running for the same position.
Poe added that she was thankful for the latest poll results, since the survey standings keep changing.
Poe’s spokesperson, Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, said the senator was grateful for the “unwavering support” of the voters.
“The trust and confidence of the Filipino voting public fuels Senator Poe to intensify her drive to drum up interest in her platform of governance – Gobyernong May Puso.”
“In the coming days we will constantly take heed of the data from the survey to guide us with our next campaign moves,” he added.
Poe’s running mate, Escudero, also expressed his gratitude.
“I am grateful for the support of the voters, for staying with me despite the fact that we’re running an election campaign with limited resources as opposed to the campaign war chest of my rivals,” Escudero said.