There may be trouble ahead in 2016.
North Korea recently admitted having exploded a hydrogen bomb near its border with Communist China. As expected, the United Nations, particularly the United States, Great Britain, South Korea, and Japan denounced the test. Evidently, North Korea is determined to become a nuclear-capable country.
The problem with a nuclear-capable North Korea lies in its irresponsible and saber-rattling leadership. Since its establishment as a Soviet Russian and Red Chinese satellite state in 1945, North Korea has wanted to conquer South Korea. Pyongyang tried to do so in 1950, when troops from the north crossed the border at the 38th parallel and attacked the south. A multinational military force under the command of General Douglas MacArthur fought back, and after three years, and with no side assured of victory, a ceasefire was negotiated. There being no peace treaty signed, the two Koreas remain in a state of war.
Pyongyang has a policy of self-reliance, and remains a virtual outcast in the world community. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, Communist China is North Korea’s only ally today. This friendship notwithstanding, Pyongyang tested its nuclear bomb right beside Chinese soil, almost as if it were provoking Beijing.
North Korea’s leadership is passed on by inheritance. Its founder, Kim Il Sung, ran the slave state as an absolute ruler. Upon his death, his son Kim Jong Il continued the tyranny. When the son died, grandson Kim Jong Un took over.
Not only did the grandson continue the family tradition of absolute rule; he made innovations in state-sponsored oppression. He ordered the execution of his own relatives, and he remains unconcerned about the famine and malnutrition plaguing his people since the 1980s. Under his watch, North Korea kidnaps English-language teachers from South Korea and Japan and compels them, under pain of death or torture, to teach selected North Koreans how to read and speak English. In fact, whenever Pyongyang needs scientists, North Korean agents are ordered to kidnap them from other countries.
The recent hydrogen bomb test is an indication that this whimsical communist despot will soon have a nuclear weapon at his disposal. Without any nukes, North Korea is already a troublemaker. A North Korea with nuclear-weapons capability under a capricious dictator is beyond description.
Over in the Middle East, there is friction between Saudi Arabia and its allies on one side, and Iran. After Riyadh announced that it executed a notorious Iranian cleric in its custody, demonstrators in Tehran attacked the Saudi Arabian embassy and ransacked it—in violation of International Law. Thereafter, Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran. Kuwait and two other Gulf allies followed Riyadh’s lead.
Repairing the ties between both sides in this conflict will not be an easy task. The people from Saudi Arabia and its regional allies are Arabs; the Iranians are not. Iranians are modern-day Persians—the ancient enemies of the Arabs in the Middle East. Also, Arabs and Iranians belong to opposing factions of Islam in a rivalry that has been around since time immemorial.
Moreover, Iranians have limited patience for diplomacy. After the Iranian Revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979 and installed an Islamic Republic under the Ayatollah Khomeini, Iranian activists were allowed by their government to attack the American embassy in Tehran and make hostages of its consular personnel. The hostages were released only a year later.
If unresolved, the conflict between the Arabs and the Iranians will escalate. So far, the ISIS terrorist group is already creating pocket wars in the Middle East. These terrorists may find it very tempting to exploit this latest conflict. At any rate, an escalation of the conflict will destabilize the Middle East and increase the price of oil. Right now, a world petroleum glut is the only thing preventing a surge in gasoline pump prices.
Speaking of ISIS, its international terror campaign has made life unsettling in many countries in Europe—France and Germany in particular. In the past, these countries were relatively passive in the international war against terrorism. Today, they have taken a stronger stand against the violence spreading in the continent. This translates to more restrictions on suspected terrorists, and this, in turn, will trigger animosity between Europe and the Middle East. Likewise, the Syrian refugee crisis facing Hungary and its neighboring states has reached its saturation point, and ISIS terrorist cells are exploiting the situation in their Internet propaganda.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the existence of the United States is a threat to Russian security. This means Russia intends to revive the cold war—a period in the previous century when a substantial percentage of the financial resources of the world was spent on proxy wars and nuclear arms development. So far, Moscow’s expansionist attitude towards the Ukraine, and its bullying behavior in the Middle East, suggest that the Kremlin longs for a return to the bad old days of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Closer to home, the conflict in the West Philippine Sea has virtually escalated overnight. Communist China now has airbases in disputed territory, in manifest violation of International Law. Because Beijing realizes that it has the military might to intimidate its maritime neighbors, it refuses to resort to international arbitration. Two-faced Beijing professes a desire for peace and regional stability in its international propaganda (this is seen in whole-page advertisements the Red Chinese embassy regularly publishes in another newspaper) but it engages in unmitigated conquest in one of the most important waterways in the world.
Although the Philippines has no military muscle to engage Communist China, there is the Vietnamese threat to consider. Hanoi has not forgotten that years ago, Beijing seized the Paracel islands from Vietnam. While both countries have communist governments, the Chinese and the Vietnamese have been traditional enemies in centuries past. Red Chinese soldiers have been spoiled by their government with modern amenities. Vietnamese soldiers remain comfortable fighting under protracted, spartan conditions.