Again, this space tries to analyze the surveys released on the week before Christmas last—this time, after Binay’s numbers, we talk about those of Grace Poe Lllamanzares.
Whichever way we look at the three publicly announced survey results, whether she is number one or two or three, the clear observation is that the lady’s numbers are slipping. For two consecutive quarters, she was Numero Uno. A survey done for private eyes after the Oct. 16 Comelec deadline, where the choices did not include Davao’s maverick non-candidate (at the time), showed her polling as high as the 40s, with Binay, Roxas and Miriam biting her dust.
But the numbers have slipped, and precariously, she is even-steven with Duterte in one, with Roxas in another. The numbers of all, in fact, show, at this stage, a very close contest among the four contenders, as we stated in our Monday article.
Poe and her VP candidate, Chiz Escudero, her spokesman Rex Gatchalian, and their other supporters keep blaming the disqualification cases filed against her regarding citizenship status and length of residence as the cause of her poll slippage. There is no denying that such cases, before the SET and then the Comelec, and now up to the high tribunal to finally decide, invariably blamed by her camp at Mar first and Binay to a lesser extent, have created a big dent on her winnability.
But is the possibility of a DQ the only reason for her numbers to go southward? I submit not.
To begin with, the majority of survey respondents parked their “votes” with her because in early 2015, as I have repeatedly stated here, the choices were limited to one who cannot win, and one who should not win. Between one whose appeal was at best, lackluster, and one whose appeal has faded on the weight of so many unsatisfactorily explained accusations of brigandage of public funds.
Enter Grace Poe, the senator who topped the elections of 2013, adopted daughter of the “cheated” FPJ, erstwhile king of Philippine movies. In her two years in the Senate, she has shown smart and articulate performance. In the public integrity department, there are no skeletons.
And so, between a Roxas and a Binay, many opted for Poe, never mind the relative inexperience at governance compared to the two. She was the “outlier,” the “bagong mukha.”
But then came Duterte of Davao. He has managerial capability, demonstrated in Davao, the country’s largest city in size, with a population more than double that of Makati in the metropolis, declared one of the world’s safest cities. His human rights credentials may be a bit spotty (largely spotty if you are to believe the likes of Leila de Lima), but he has no blemish of corruption. And he has color which neither the bland Mar or the predictably motherhood-ish Jojo had, owing to his speaking his mind out with no qualms, and the demonstrated political will.
Many of the Poe “parkers” migrated to Duterte. Chiz and Rex, Georgiddi and whoever else blamed the preference migration to the DQ, and only that.
Assuming there was no cloud over her constitutional bona-fide’s, would it be right to assume that she would tower over all the other presidential contenders by now? As in, hey guys, “eat my dust”?
Remember that preference for her came out because one, she has emotional links to the departed FPJ. Two, because she is “clean.” And three, because she had been saying the right things, “safe” though these may have always been. Properly handled, willingly follower of in-the-box advice.
Now look at the demographics. How many of the millennials, who constitute the biggest vote bloc, remember FPJ? How many got to watch his action movies? Of course Coco Martin does a great impersonation in Grace Poe’s ABS-CBN sponsor’s “recuerdo opus” now airing at prime time, with her adoptive mother, Susan Roces portraying Martin’s doting and protective “lola,” but is there such a strong connect between reel and reality?
Again, given the average Filipino’s short memory, how many recall the Garci and Gloria machinations of 2004, with her adoptive father, FPJ, as the victim? Besides, Gloria is in jail; Garci is in hibernation in the boondocks of Bukidnon; and PNoy is in charge.
Three, are the safe motherhood statements she has been saying, what the voters come May want to hear? In a time of uncertainty, with China bellowing, MILF and BIFF spewing threats of violence, the NPA still alive and kicking, and now, the tension in the Middle East, the first impact of which is to reverse the downward spiral in oil prices, is she the right prescription for the malady the nation is experiencing, and will experience even to greater degree in the years to come? This is where the political maverick Duterte excites, while Poe is ho-hum.
Four, real experience. Mar has it, although questions of effectivity, given DoTC and DILG, Yolanda and Zamboanga, hound him. Binay has it, undoubtedly. Duterte has it as well. Even Miriam has it. Poe has no real experience yet.
And five, glimpses of character. She cocked her guns at PNoy in the Mamasapano hearings. But that was it. Cock, then retreat. Her much-heralded committee report has yet to be approved by the Senate in plenum. And it doesn’t seem like she is raring for a fight.
She excoriated against Abaya, still snipes occasionally. But that’s the end of it. Talk.
I won’t write about how she ditched Martin Romualdez out of her senatorial ticket. Or Ping Lacson, and the conversations prior to her decisions. These were told to me in confidence. She talked to Duterte right after Mamasapano somewhere in Corinthian. She wondered openly if he would consider her for vice president, if he decides to run. He demurred. Then, when she reached Olympian heights in the middle of 2015, as far as SWS and Pulse read, she, through a common friend, asked if he would consider being her Numero Dos. I write about this because Duterte has openly talked about it. Wait until Ping and Martin also confide publicly.
To the survey respondents, glimpses of character may not resonate quickly enough. But to the political “cognoscenti,” they who could tilt a close fight among equally seeded protagonists, the mayors, the governors and other influencers, glimpses of character, of “palabra” do matter.
Finally, pooh-poohing the moral issue raised by Leni Robredo publicly about her disavowing loyalty to the Philippines and hogging America, thence ditching her adopted country when there was convenient government post offered to her, will surely be brought up, with increased decibels, as the campaign unfolds in earnest. That too is a character issue. It goes to the very heart of loyalty to country. The average Filipino may be pro-American, but there is a strong latent nationalism beneath their moral fiber.
And so, as the contest goes down the wire, the Supreme Court’s final word notwithstanding, Senadora Poe’s chances do not look as formidable as they seem. Her protagonists surely know this.