Here are three things to remember about the Dec. 12, 2015 agreement in Paris on climate change:
One, nations of the world are now committed to keep global warming by 2050, to “well below” 2°Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) higher than the pre-industrial 1800 temperature. Much better, the rise should be 1.5 °C.
Two, the rich countries will provide, beginning 2020, $100 billion a year to the poor countries affected by climate change. The commitment is not legally binding but global public opinion could probably shame the donor countries. The money will help victim- countries become green or greener and cope with floods, droughts, and storms.
Three, all countries, rich or poor, must cut carbon emissions dramatically every five years so that overall pollution or emissions could be brought down “as soon as possible.” A meeting will be held every five years to audit each nation’s pledges.
The 2°C benchmark is legally binding. The 1.5°C is just an ambition. But the .5°C difference could mean glaciers not melting and about 130 million people not being inundated by rising waters and probably dying.
In the last 30 years, the minimum extent of the Arctic sea ice has been reduced by 41 percent, from 7.8 million sq. km. to 4.6 million sq. km. The loss in area is 10 times the size of the United Kingdom disappearing.
From the 1800s to today, the average temperature of the world’s surface has risen by just 0.85°C (1.4F)—and look is what’s happening to us now. The sea level has risen by a foot. We have had severe storms, severe floods, severe droughts and each of the last 10 years, including 2015, has been the warmest on record.
Countries, once considered developing or poor but which have become wealthy, should also help the poorer countries. They include Singapore, South Korea, China and even India.
Before the Dec. 12 Paris agreement, about 146 nations promised as of end-October 2015, to cut carbon emissions by 55 gigatons of carbon dioxide, a reduction per year which could mean a global warming of 2.7°C, instead of 2°C, by year 2100.
The cut per year should be 40 gigatons—the equivalent of four huge nuclear bombs detonating with a power enough to obliterate the earth, at 10 gigatons GT per nuclear bomb.
Without the October 2015 pledges, warming will be 2°C, with business as usual. Current carbon emissions per year is 37 gigatons. At this rate, the remaining 825 gigatons of “carbon budget,” assuming 2.4 percent per year linear emissions increase—will be used up in 17 years or 2032, then we hit the 2°C threshold.
The world’s energy companies have fuel reserves equivalent to carbon pollution of 725 GT. Add the 780 GT of fuel reserves still to be developed, plus 1,280 GT of “other reserves,” then the total pollution potential is 2,785 GT. From 1850 to today, the world has released 1,475 GT of carbon dioxide, mainly due to human activities.
Translating global warming into nuclear bombs may not make much sense because if one 10-gigaton bomb could finish the earth, why bother with the three other 10-gigaton bombs? But it shows you how grave the problem of global warming impact is.
Even now, with global temperature at just .85°C above the 1800s, some 400,000 people die every year allegedly because of warming, according to Climate Vulnerability Monitor. Those 400,000 lives are supposed to be worth $3 trillion, using the Value of Statistical Life metrics of the US Environmental Protection Agency. You can imagine the toll in deaths and money with a global warming of 2.7°C. If ask me though, millions more could probably benefit from $3 trillion if you let nature handle the 400,000.
What does a 2°C target mean to our daily lives? Profound and plenty.
At the dining table, you cannot eat steak because steak comes from cows and it takes huge tracks of grazing land to breed cattle. Those lands will probably come from forests that have to be cut down, not to mention the methane gas from cows. Pork is more carbon-correct although they say chicken is best because it requires little fossil fuel and spoiling of the environment to grow.
Probably, we would have no more gasoline-fed cars in 30 years. We will have more wind mills in nearly every area where there is strong wind (except in Congress), and more solar panels in place.
Electricity coming from coal and crude oil will have to be phased out. That is a very expensive proposition. Furniture made of wood will be very expensive because logging will have to be banned, along with kaingin (slash-and-burn farming of forests).
Coal and crude oil remain the cheapest sources of electricity. They cost less than half the power produced from windmills and solar. The richest Filipinos in business brag about investing in windmills. Some of these people are blue-eyed or chinky although they are counted as Filipinos—unlike Grace Poe. These oligarchs are not making money with green energy. They make money because of generous subsidies from the government called feed-in tariffs.
If government can subsidize the already very rich in the name of epal green energy, maybe, starting now, the government should start subsidizing the use of solar on our rooftops, so that we, the poor and the pedestrian, can help cut emissions without burning our pockets. The burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas is the main contributor to carbon dioxide emissions, the gases responsible for global warming.The burning of forests—which absorb carbon—also adds to the warming.
The last time I inquired, it costs P200,000 to have a solar panel on your roof—the equivalent price of a second-hand car running on diesel and is good for 10 more years. Why should an Ayala, an Aboitiz, a Lopez, or a Ty have all the breaks in the world?
Globally, the biggest polluters are China (24 percent of total greenhouse gas emitted); United States (12 percent); European Union (9 percent); India (6 percent); Brazil (6 percent); Russia (5 percent); Japan (3 percent); Canada (2 percent); Congo (1.5 percent); and Indonesia (1.5 percent). These ten countries account for 70 percent of total global emissions.
For the crime of 10 countries, some 190 other nations have to suffer. But then as Pope Francis says, the Earth is our common home. You have to love your family members no matter how bad they are.
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