WITH two weeks to go until Election Day, it’s now or never for the four candidates for president—administration candidate Mar Roxas, independent candidate Mrs. Grace Poe Llamanzares, opposition candidate Vice President Jejomar Binay and PDP-Laban candidate Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Du-Dirty. I’m counting out Stage 4 cancer patient Miriam Santiago.
The choice is actually not that difficult. Despite what poll surveys tell us, it is still a tight race. A lot of things can happen, depending on many imponderables at the local level which spell the difference between winning and losing. That’s why they say that in the Philippines, all elections are local.
The way I see it, it’s a choice between an American—an amateur who thinks that the presidency is an on-the-job training; one who echoes the straight path of the incumbent President, a path of incompetence, insensitivity and vindictiveness; a self-confessed killer and womanizer, loud-mouthed, conceited and remorseless without any sense of decency; and somebody who can heal political wounds and unite the country, and with a record of achievements as a public official.
The choice is actually not that difficult to make for anybody who has a conscience.
I’m not predicting anything, but coming right down to it, the presidential race is a battle between popularity and political grassroots machinery. It’s nothing new, as we have seen way back the late 50s when the very popular Grand Alliance candidate Raul Manglapus went against President Carlos P. Garcia, but lost; in 1992 when President Fidel Ramos defeated the popular Miriam Santiago and businessman Danding Cojuangco; and in 2004 when the popular movie icon Fernando Poe Jr. lost to incumbent President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
On May 9, I still believe that it will be a battle between those leading in poll surveys and those who can deliver votes from the vote-rich provinces, like Cebu, Pangasinan and Cavite, and finally get the Iglesia Ni Cristo command votes of no less than 2.5 million. This was the same vote that led to the defeat of former President Erap Estrada when the Iglesia went for BS Aquino, who surveys said was leading because of sympathy for BS Aquino after the death of former President Cory Aquino. In other words, Santa Banana, history will repeat itself.
It has been said that while there’s a national political grassroots machinery, it will be the local machinery that will deliver the votes. Yes, it’s the local politicians who are known to deliver the votes because they are dependent on the national machinery for money.
After all, it’s the local political leader who gives money—for food, clothing and shelter—to those who need it most. In other words, the bottom line is money.
Vote buying in any language shatters our belief in democracy, but it’s a fact in our kind of election with 60 percent of our more than 101 million of people living below the poverty line.
In urban areas, voters may go for who they think is best for the country, but vote buying is still prevalent. In Makati and Taguig where we think there are many intelligent voters, a vote goes for P400 to P500 each. It must be inflation because in 2001, a vote cost only P250 to P300, and then it went up to P350 to P400 in 2013. That’s the reason why some of my politician-friends have decided not to run anymore.
With this in mind, the administration candidate has the advantage—except when he is having difficulty catching up with popular and moneyed candidates. This is when the administration has no choice but to cheat. And that appears likely, especially since President BS Aquino is fighting for his life. He is likely to go to jail with numerous criminal and civil cases to be thrown at him when he steps down from office.
And my gulay, fraud seems likely with Smartmatic’s Precinct Count Optical Scan. After all, wasn’t the supposedly secure website of the Commission on Elections hacked, compromising the data of tens of millions of voters?
Even now, there seems to be a concerted effort on the part of the administration to steal over a million overseas votes. There are reports coming in that some embassy and consulate officials are telling Filipinos overseas to vote for the administration candidate, and that automated voting receipts do not tally with the actual voting.
Santa Banana, if this can happen in overseas voting, it can also happen here at home. Remember, the President is desperate.
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Almost all of the presidential candidates have gone to see INC Supremo Ka Eduardo Manalo for his support since in a tight race for Malacañang, the two or more million INC vote would make the difference. The Iglesia Supremo, however, has not committed the Iglesia vote to anybody.
As I said in an earlier column, the Iglesia deacons in each INC jurisdiction conduct a house-to-house survey a week before election, and they submit the results in a “samba” gathering of ministers and the Supreme Council three days before election day. The results will then be circulated among all its members. I was told that the actual voting power of the Iglesia is no less than 2.5 million.
The Iglesia had its hands burned during the 1992 election when it went all-out for businessman Danding Cojuangco. President Fidel V. Ramos won. Since then, the Iglesia has relied on its survey. In 1993, the Iglesia went all-out for Erap Estrada, and in 2004, despite the popularity of movie icon FPJ, the Iglesia voted for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. But, in 2010, the Iglesia went for BS Aquino since its survey showed him winning even against Erap. Note that the difference between the votes of BS Aquino and Erap constituted the Iglesia votes.
That’s why the Iglesia vote is something to watch out for. For sure, the Iglesia will always be for the winner. Smart, huh? After all, when payback time comes, the Iglesia will always have their members in sensitive positions, like an Iglesia being the Chief of the Philippine National Police. It never fails.
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Farmers have filed multiple complaints against two Cabinet members, high ranking provincial officials, and more than 90 police and military personnel for the bloody dispersal of a protest in Kidapawan City in North Cotabato.
I am not too sure if the complaints will even reach first base under BS Aquino who had actually blamed the farmers for what had happened.
Would you believe that the police top brass blamed the hungry farmers who were just clamoring for rice and assistance from government in the midst of El Niño? They had the gall to say that perhaps those who killed the farmers and wounded others came from their own ranks.
My gulay, that’s something for Ripley’s “Believe It or Not,” since the people we all saw on television carrying M16 rifles were policemen . But, then, that’s the BS Aquino administration for you—hypocrites and liars. And then Interior Secretary Mel Senen Sarmiento handed medals to the policemen who dispersed the farmers.