“With such a huge mandate, we had hoped Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. would be a reforming president, one who would act with purposive urgency driven by a sense of mission not just to redeem the family image, but to leave a legacy truly his own “
I am using the title of this piece not in its musical connotation, for SONAs are delivered “a capella,” not even a “cantata” where the singer is accompanied usually by a pianist.
The president is front and center, with full attention upon him, his words, his manner of delivery, even his facial expressions whenever he addresses the joint session of Congress.
The applause is predictable, almost “de cajon,” especially when you have 97 percent of the members of both houses figuratively “in your pocket” with pork.
Note that media always feature the fashion sense of the political elite and their halves, no matter how “outre.” To some, the fashion sideshow is more interesting than the words the leader spews out.
I am making a play on the SONA and the Tagalog “panata,” which means a pledge, as when the president finished his hour-and-eleven-minute speech with the ringing declaration that “Bagong Pilipinas” has arrived.
Sana nga, we pray, the SONA becomes a true panata.
First, he rattled achievements such as the country being among the fastest-growing economies in Asia and the world, with strong macro-economic fundamentals.
But 7.6 percent GDP growth has to be juxtaposed with the reality that COVID and the lockdowns caused our economy to contract in 2020 and 2021.
Economists would say that at 6-7 percent growth rates, with inflation still raging at 5-7 percent bands, we have yet to recover or bring the economy back to pre-pandemic levels.
The first is a metric of economic growth, while inflation becomes the counter-balance that defines the quality of life in those numbers.
Realistically, we need to grow the economy by some 10 percent annually from 2023 to 2028 and get the GDP growing to around 40 trillion per annum, a doable but difficult feat, given the external dis-economies and the apparent lack of urgency by government and its leadership to take bold reforms.
I am reminded of the “Red Queen” effect inspired by Alice in Wonderland, which our instructor in price theory described as one having to run twice as fast to remain in the same place.
That is true whether in fighting inflation or rebounding the economy lain low by Covid.
We need to run many times faster, and the leader has to step up to the tune. Urgency, not business as usual, is the order of the day.
The president also cited infrastructure gains, but to put credit properly, these were started by the previous administration, with some initiated by its predecessor even, and he just had to cut the ribbons.
He was right in singling out inflation as the biggest devil, not just an elephant in the room of the macro-economy.
But touting Kadiwa as solution is not solution enough.
Its reach, sustainability and wastage will have to be weighed against the temporary relief it gives to a few, accompanied by repetitive optics.
Like it or not, he will be judged by his aspiration, his unthinking promise, of 20 peso rice. He was silent on this self-imposed metric this time.
As it is, government through NFA subsidizes the optics at about P13 per. NFA buys palay at P19, which balloons to P38 after milling and logistics, but Kadiwa sells at P25.
The Marcos Sr. Kadiwa cum Masagana 99 programs brought massive losses to government coffers, and their resurrection now, with the Rice Tarrification Law in force, will just skew the staple industry into more and more importation, unless government subsidizes farm inputs heavily, but that again is not sustainable aside from being a traditional occasion for deep pockets to earn from.
In the foreseeable future, the DA must face the realities of El Nino, India’s stopping rice exports (it is the biggest rice exporting country, although we buy little from it), which adds to the over-all supply problem, Vietnam possibly limiting exports, preferring government-to-government deals which our RTL proscribes, NFA with little more than a day’s consumption in its warehouses, and still insufficient domestic production.
If the price of rice has inched up to the present 44 per kilo, already a marked 10 percent higher than when Duterte stepped down, do not expect it to go down whether in your wet market or the supermarket, Kadiwa excepted.
Pagminalas-malas, we could be looking at P50 per kilo by Christmas or early next year.
Which is why the traders are looking forward to bigger profits, while the farmers will get some crumbs in terms of marginally higher palay prices.
Still, we hope the president can indeed do something about the hoarders, profiteers and smugglers, as he pledged.
Beyond investigations though, reforming the systems — and this is where his proposal to revise our antiquated procurement and auditing practices – are much needed.
In Duterte’s time, he phoned a major rice trader and threatened the poor guy with termination by extreme prejudice, and it worked for a brief while but, then again, the law of supply and demand took over after a month or so.
Reality bites, sound and fury notwithstanding.
There is no substitute for better agricultural productivity whether in our farms or pig pens, and it’s a problem that will take time to resolve.
The bureaucrats at DA know the solutions, but implementation is always slow, and the LGUs which are supposed to be the front liners, are not in sync.
We would have welcomed an honest admission of the dismal realities of our agricultural sector and a plea for the public to have a little more patience as solutions are medium if not long-term, rather than increasing Kadiwa’s unsustainable reach.
But take rosy promises with a grain of salt. Leaders need to inspire, even though the aspirations may be unreachable.
We have observed that across seven presidencies. Looking back, we played along in four of these. In the autumn of our life, we know better.
Still, hardly did the president mention the growing public debt, now at P14.1 trillion, comprising 63 percent of our GDP.
Our economic managers tell us not to worry, as 63 percent is still lower than Japan or the US of A’s debt to GDP ratio, but that’s comparing apples and our nearly extinct atis.
Neither was there a call for Congress to lower their greed as they partake of their take in the pork barrel, or upon bureaucrats to temper their waste as they merrily spend every centavo in their budget.
The boldest statement was that he would not “tolerate corruption or incompetence” even if the biggest perpetrators were his audience in the same cavernous hall.
He would accept resignations from the police generals involved in criminal syndicates, he declared, and as if in prepared cadence, the following day, 18 PNP officials were shown the door.
But if indeed these officials have been identified, why just make them resign?
Harsher measures and firmer resolve should have been the SONA’s tune.
One after all does not have to be in “unity” with malefactors, especially from those who are sworn to preserve law and order.
Given where we are at this time, one would hope for more drastic action and bolder directions. But we realize that unlike his predecessor, this president is conflict averse.
But though unity is still his over-arching guidon, uniting everyone as in “hating kapatid” whether in pork or perks, and making “everybody happy,” coming up with the usual “win-win” solutions, just postpone the day when hungry stomachs and grim future prospects make the public realize that it can no longer be “business as usual.”
With such a huge mandate, we had hoped Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. would be a reforming president, one who would act with purposive urgency driven by a sense of mission not just to redeem the family image, but to leave a legacy truly his own.
Yet, to be fair, he has four more years before another electoral season makes him a lame duck.
Such is the praxis of our political system. One year to learn; four years to act; and one year to step back and wait for the succession.
Meanwhile, in Broadway, a new musical is inaugurated. It is the story of a lady who has taken not only her country but the world as a stage.
“Here Lies Love” is the story of Imelda Romualdez Marcos.
In the new branding, love seems to be buzzword, whether in tourism revival or in the optics of national unity.
The lights are on. The cameras are ready.
Action! Is what we need.