The latest survey results from Social Weather Stations, Pulse Asia, and the Laylo Report are very interesting. Clearly, this is a volatile and competitive race, a virtual dead heat among the top four candidates—Vice President Jejomar Binay, Senator Grace Poe, Secretary Mar Roxas, and Mayor Rody Duterte. While Poe and Binay are clearly in the lead, Roxas and Duterte are not far behind. For sure, voters are noticing the behavior of candidates. Perhaps, later on, issues will matter as well.
All the candidates can actually spin the survey results in their favor. Indeed, depending on whom you support, there is good news for Binay, Poe, Roxas, and Duterte.
VP Binay can certainly claim that the worst is over for him and that he has survived the damaging corruption allegations from the Ombudsman, the Senate and the media. Some think that the Roxas campaign went negative on Binay too early. With the VP surviving that premature offensive, he will now coast to victory. That is not likely and I would not let my guard down if I were in the Binay camp. Still, one can only admire the tenacity of the man. Certainly, he seems to be the one campaigning the hardest, spending time with ordinary people and leaders at the barangay level. According to one friend of mine, who is doing nonpartisan voter education work, they have discovered that everywhere they go, the VP has been there before them.
Senator Poe can also argue that there is reason for her camp to celebrate the latest survey numbers. Indeed, it’s amazing that her numbers are still so high even with all the disqualification cases decided against her. In fact, a few of the pollsters have said that the only reason her numbers went down is because of the uncertainty of her candidacy. Once that uncertainty is removed, many of the voters she has lost because they thought she was already disqualified will flock back to her. A TRO from the Supreme Court would help reverse those losses. In the meantime, she should continue her positive campaign, which stands out in this very dirty campaign, while assuring voters that she is here to stay as a candidate.
Secretary Roxas can also spin the survey results in his favor. He can claim a steady and consistent rise; from the numbers he had early this year, which was in the single digits, to the now respectable third or fourth place he finds himself in. It is obvious that Secretary Roxas has spent the most funds so far in this informal phase of the campaign and is showing results for that. His not-so-secret weapon is President Aquino himself and with that the full machinery of the ruling party and the administration. This could, however, backfire if Roxas is not seen as his own man, with his own mind and vision.
As for Mayor Duterte, his campaign definitely started with a bang with a special SWS Survey, commissioned by a supporter, giving him a wide lead over his rivals. It is not clear why his numbers in the regular SWS survey, taken two weeks later, dipped. SWS President Mahar Mangahas attributes this to large shifts in election races, which he has encountered before. Regardless, Duterte can definitely a make a case that his baseline support is phenomenal, being a latecomer in the race. However, he would have to be more careful with his language and behavior if he is going to broaden his appeal.
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago continues to appeal to young voters. But she needs to be on the campaign trail to increase her chances. Social media is just not enough to expand and consolidate support.
On the vice presidential race, the most interesting development is representative Leni Robredo catching up and tying Senator Bongbong Marcos in the SWS survey. While Senator Chiz Escudero still leads all the surveys, he should not be complacent as Robredo, Marcos, and Senator Alan Cayetano are competitive. The big question is what is the effect on Escudero and Cayetano if their presidential team mates are eventually disqualified.
The campaigns must now recalibrate themselves and essentially try to get votes from each other. They must soon discuss issues of importance to the voters—corruption, poverty, livelihood and jobs, social injustice, education, climate change and disasters, peace, etc. I hope that we will have robust debates attended by all the major candidates.
This is especially important with the possibility of Poe and Duterte getting disqualified. The big question is to whom will those votes go. What I am sure of is that it will not go to the party and the candidate/s who are seen to have manipulated the Comelec or other institutions to disqualify their preferred candidates. For the Comelec, that is obvious given that appointees identified with the Liberal Party dominate it. Voters of Poe and Duterte will not forget that if their favored candidates are disqualified.
For the Supreme Court, it would be trickier to discern who can influence its decision—whether it is Binay, President Aquino, fraternity ties, the INC, former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, others, or none at all. As for me, I always start with the belief that Supreme Court Justices come to each case with an independent and unbiased mind. As a lawyer and officer of the court, I will not speculate on such influence and also refrain on commenting on the legal aspects of the disqualification cases once petitions are filed in the court.
This I know though: With the uncertainty that will be created by the potential disqualification of Poe and/or Duterte, it probably makes sense for both Binay and Roxas to actually have the names of Poe and Duterte remain on the ballot. If the current numbers hold, where roughly all of the top four have one fourth to one fifth of the electorate, having the machinery and the cash on election day could carry either Binay and Roxas over the top.
Many people are disgusted with the campaign that is so far unfolding. I am, too. But I believe that Filipino voters can see through all the scum, lies, and manipulation. They know what they want, the poor and the youth especially. It’s about the future—it’s all about the future. They will punish those who talk and act badly in the elections; they will shun those who seek to divide the country. Voters will choose the one with the right vision, who acts ethically throughout campaign, and who brings out the best in us as a people.
Facebook Page: Dean Tony La Viña Twitter: tonylavs