“This battle is not just legal – it is deeply political”
(Last of 2 parts)
III. Political implications
The Marcos-Duterte Rift
If Duterte resigns before trial, she deprives Marcos Jr.’s allies of the ability to remove her through impeachment, weakening their control over the process.
Conversely, if the Senate proceeds, it signals a new power shift within Congress, where Marcos Jr. may be consolidating anti-Duterte forces.
Impact on 2028 Presidential Elections
If Duterte is disqualified, it removes a major contender from the presidential race, benefiting potential Marcos-backed candidates.
If she survives the trial, she could emerge politically stronger, framing herself as a victim of political persecution.
Risk of Destabilization
A prolonged impeachment battle, especially if seen as politically motivated, could deepen polarization and trigger public unrest.
IV. Ethical considerations
Legitimacy of the Process
If the impeachment is perceived as weaponized justice, it could erode public trust in institutions.
Conversely, if officials can resign to escape accountability, it sets a dangerous precedent for future corruption cases.
Due Process Rights of the Accused
If the Senate proceeds, Duterte must be given a fair opportunity to defend herself, ensuring that the trial does not become a rubber-stamp decision.
V. Conclusion
A. The Most Likely Scenario
If Duterte resigns, the Senate will face pressure to halt proceedings, citing the Gutierrez precedent.
Given the political climate, Marcos-aligned lawmakers may push to continue to secure a disqualification ruling.
The Supreme Court is likely to intervene if Duterte challenges the trial’s legitimacy.
B. Policy Recommendations
Clarify the Constitutional Process
Congress should pass legislation or constitutional amendments specifying whether impeachment can proceed after resignation.
Establish Clearer Grounds for Disqualification
The Senate should define under what conditions an official can be disqualified post-resignation.
Strengthen Anti-Corruption Mechanisms
The Philippines should expand alternative legal mechanisms (e.g., criminal prosecution) to hold officials accountable outside of impeachment.
Vice President Duterte’s potential resignation before her impeachment trial presents a high-stakes Constitutional test.
While historical precedent suggests resignation halts proceedings, the argument for continuing the trial—based on disqualification—has legal merit.
The Senate’s decision will set a precedent for how impeachment is used as an accountability mechanism in the future.
This battle is not just legal – it is deeply political.
The outcome will shape the balance of power between the Marcos and Duterte factions and define the credibility of the country’s democratic institutions.
If the impeachment process is seen as fair and transparent, it could strengthen democratic norms.
If it is perceived as a political maneuver, it risks further destabilizing the country.