There’s a new disturbing development in the simmering South China Sea territorial dispute. China, according to Taiwan, has deployed surface-to-air missiles system in one of the disputed islands in the area.This, even as the United States and members of the Southeast Asian Nations held a summit this week in California hosted by President Barack Obama to defuse tension in the region.
The US and the European Union have warned Beijing to obey The Hague international arbitration court’s ruling on the case filed by the Philippines contesting China’s sweeping SCS claim.
“Obey the court’s decision, or else…” came the stern US and EU warning, without any specific consequence or action to be taken in case of an adverse ruling against China which refused to participate in The Hague hearings.
Taiwan, considered a renegade province by China, has an overlapping claim with Vietnam over Woody Island in the Paracels where the Chinese had deployed the SAMs Satellite images showed launchers with missiles estimated to have a range of 350 miles. The Chinese SAM deployment is seen as its response to deter US spy planes, and lately also Australian aircraft, from carrying out surveillance flights over the artificial islands made into military installations.
Speaking with one voice, the US-Asean Summit held in Sunnylands, California issued a joint declaration calling on all claimants to parts of the South China Sea to settle disputes through diplomacy, maintain freedom of navigation and over-flights in international airspace.
Although China was never mentioned in the Sunnylands Summit, it was the proverbial elephant in the room that has everyone concerned. The militarization of the South China Sea is continuing despite Beijing’s claim that the installations in the artificial islands they reclaimed with sand and rocks from the sea were for peaceful purposes. Purportedly to build a lighthouse and a refuge for fishermen caught in a storm, the islands instead have been converted into military garrisons complete with an airstrip and a naval base for Chinese warships.
How far will Beijing push the envelope and how long will the US allow China to consolidate its military strength in the region are vexing questions unsettling the peace and security of the entire Asia-Pacific. Tension has come close to tipping point when two US warships sailed by close to the Chinese-made islands and carried out surveillance flights over air space China claims.
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, just before an official visit to Beijing, stated that Canberra recognizes Manila’s right to file an international arbitration case in The Hague court contesting China’s claim of nearly the entire South China Sea. Bishop’s statement did not sit well with her Chinese counterpart.
Last month, an Australian surveillance plane had flown over the artificial islands to see the extent of the Chinese militarization of the disputed area.
The specter of war in the region is a scary scenario because it could involve superpower, US against a rising China. It won’t be the traditional ground war seen between North and South Korea in the 50s and the conflict between North and South Vietnam in the 60s. In both instances, the US fought North Korean and North Vietnamese troops backed by China.
A shooting war, if it does erupt over the South China Sea, could unleash rockets, missiles plus the battleships and war planes of the two major protagonists. Can US treaty allies— Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines—just stand by and watch? It’s a frightening scenario that must be avoided at all costs. We have yet to hear from the United Nations and its overstaying Secretary General Ban Ki Moon on how the UN is planning to avert the situation from getting out of hand.
How rogue state North Korea with the unhinged Kim Jong- Un and his nuclear arsenal will figure in the equation adds to the nightmare China has created.
But then the UN and major international players US, Russia, UK, Germany and France are busy finding a solution to the bloody two-year civil war in Syria. How to remove Syrian strongman Basser al Assad who is supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the stumbling block to a peace settlement. Meanwhile, Syrian rebel forces are losing ground from Russian air strike targeting them on the pretext of dislodging ISIS extremists from their strongholds.
Civilians fleeing the fighting in Syria, together with other refugees from strife-torn Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, continue to cross into Turkey, Greece and ultimately to settle in Western Europe. Unless a coalition of UN forces stamp out the problem from the source, there will be no end to the human wave of migrants flooding into Europe.