“The decline in the rebel strength over the years…does not give the NDF the high ground in political negotiations”
In Nov. 2023, the Marcos Jr. administration announced it had entered into an agreement with representatives of the National Democratic Front in Oslo, Norway for the resumption of formal peace talks to end the nearly six-decade-old armed conflict.
But exactly 15 months later, nothing more has been heard or written about this agreement from either side.
This raises the question: Whatever happened to this agreement? Was the government serious about pursuing peace, or did it deem it later as unnecessary since the Armed Forces of the Philippines had already achieved what it described as “strategic victory” over the rebel movement, with “total victory,” that is, not just in the battlefield, but also in the political realm, through peace negotiations, not far in the horizon?
Or did the rebel side also decide not to pursue the agreed-upon peace talks as they also considered it unnecessary or even counter-productive at this point since they felt that the government was not sincere in radical reforms in the political, economic and social spheres, and the only recourse is to continue the armed struggle?
As things now stand, it appears the rebel movement has lost considerable ground in their pursuit of seizure of political power through the barrel of the gun and encircling the cities from the countryside as part of the ‘protracted people’s war’ doctrine enunciated by Mao Zedong in the 1930s until the Chinese communists emerged victorious in 1949.
News reports of relentless pursuit by the military of the New People’s Army rebels still launching limited tactical offensives from a vastly reduced area of operations in the different regions appear to give the impression that the Maoist-led rebellion is on its death throes, despite official statements to the contrary by both the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing.
The arrest or neutralization of top CPP/NPA leaders and the death of CPP Founding Chairman Jose Ma. Sison, battlefield losses and the reported surrender of a number of rebels to the military and local authorities may have led to the significant decline in rebel attacks in recent years.
The military claims that NPA guerrilla fronts—or areas where there are at least three platoons of full- time guerrillas—have now been reduced to only a few, in contrast to the estimated peak NPA strength of 25,000 in the 1980s.
The decline in the rebel strength over the years, in part due as well to internal purges believed to have led to thousands of suspected military deep penetration agents killed by the NPA, does not give the NDF the high ground in political negotiations.
Rather, they will have to drop their demand for a coalition government where their representatives can be given key positions. They cannot demand power sharing as they approach the negotiating table not from a position of strength but of weakness.
Late last year, the AFP said they are “well within target” as the only remaining “weakened” guerrilla front of the NPA can no longer stage any major operations in the country. In 2023, the military said, the NPA still had seven guerrilla fronts.
That the rebel strength had been whittled down to just one in a year’s time according to the military, and a number of local officials in various parts of the country claiming that they have helped make their areas “insurgency-free,” could well indicate the rebel movement is really on the decline—and quite possibly leave them no choice but to come back to the negotiating table.
We favor the immediate resumption of peace talks between the government and the CPP-NPA-NDF, but with a bilateral ceasefire in place monitored by a disinterested third party, such as Norway, which has been helping the Philippines broker peace talks between the warring parties for some time already.
It is time to prevent the loss of more lives and address the problems of poverty and social inequality that have fueled rebellion in the country since the late 1960s and persist up to this day.
If the government has succeeded in ending Muslim insurgency in southern Philippines and even brought breakaway groups from the CPP-NPA-NDF to the negotiating table, what’s keeping us from hoping for an end to armed conflict and achieving an honorable and lasting peace?
(Email: ernhil@yahoo.com)