By Jonathan Bernstein
The blunt truth is that all of this has been perfectly predictable from Day One. Donald Trump has been running the White House the way Jimmy Carter did for almost his entire presidency, and Bill Clinton did for his first several months. It just doesn't work, even with an engaged and skilled politician (that is, Clinton) in the Oval Office. With an amateur? Chaos.
John Kelly, who served for a long time as a general and a short time as President Trump's homeland security secretary, probably isn't the best fit for White House chief of staff. But he has two advantages over Reince Priebus: extensive experience working in government and the power to do his new job properly. So perhaps he'll turn out to be better at the job.
Everyone in the White House now reports to Kelly, who sent a dramatic signal on his first day by firing communications director Anthony Scaramucci. Still, that was the easy part. In the coming weeks, Kelly's ability to turn this trainwreck around will become clear by gauging progress on these fronts.
Firing more people
The big question is whether Kelly can really clean house, ridding the administration of the unqualified, inept gang of competing power centers which have made the first six-plus months of Trump's presidency far more of a disaster than necessary.
Adding qualified staffers
Kelly dismissed Scaramucci, but what kind of talent is he able to recruit? Will that person, for a change, actually have proper experience for that job? Will candidates who dropped out of the running in the past because of the toxic work environment and political situation consider serving an operation led by Kelly?
Subtracting empty threats
Let's see whether the White House stops issuing threats it can't possibly back up. Every empty threat further damages the president's reputation, making even legitimate threats useless and generally destroying the president's bargaining position across the board.
Prioritizing policymaking
What would represent a big step up for this White House? Building a policy shop that's actually able to, well, propose policies. For example, it might help get a tax bill passed if the White House was actually able to offer something more than vague outlines of ideas of notions of principles.
Managing the executive branch
Let's see whether the White House starts reining in excesses in executive branch departments and agencies, and pushing harder for the president's program in others. And, yes, let's see if basic professionalism returns to the White House. It would be a positive sign if, for example, they could start proofreading for spelling before issuing statements.
But Trump will be Trump
My View colleague Timothy L. O'Brien is certainly correct that Donald Trump remains the most important problem in his own administration, and that really sets limits as to how well any of this can work. He's never going to learn his brief. He's never going to keep his mouth shut when he should, or deliver appropriate remarks without extensive hand holding, and even then it'll always be hit or miss. The best possible Trump administration might be a lot better than what we've seen to date, but it's never going to be good, and some of the damage already done (and time already wasted) can't be wished away.
The Russia scandal almost certainly is going to get worse.
Kelly can't fix the Trump administration. Not even James Baker on his best day could do that. But there are always degrees of dysfunction, and it's possible that the chaos could be turned down a notch. Or possibly even two. Bloomberg