“If Inday Sara realizes her own fate is tied up to the senatorial numbers come May 12, she may have to look beyond the PDP’s candidates”
THOUGH “legacy” media largely downplayed the legions who protested the abduction of Rodrigo Roa Duterte here and abroad, with a high point on his 80th birthday Friday last week, there is no mistaking the air of resentment against the current administration.
To a certain extent, the RRD surrender to the ICC created two political flashpoints: one, an issue of sovereignty that struck deep into the slumbering pride of country; and, two, a reminder of how the quality of life has deteriorated under the current leadership, with crimes prevalent in the cities and involuntary hunger rising at alarming levels.
One need not even cite surveys nor daily TV reports about these gut issues to prove one’s case about the social and economic decline. Juxtaposed against the excessive corruption of legislators and their flashy lifestyles, highlighted by the mangled 2025 budget, one can understand the enormity of the public rage.
While congressional booty derived from massive doses of ayuda has resulted in many districts and LGUs controlled by the same families from having no real opposition in the coming elections, there is no certainty that these dynastic clans will go all out for the administration’s senatorial candidates.
The so-called “mid-term advantage” enjoyed by the administration might not be as effective as it has been during the Duterte and Aquino administrations.
What is going for the administration, aside from a 10 to 1 resource advantage versus its opposing senatorial slate is many of the Alyansa’s chosen candidates are well-known brands. Even if most of them are non-performers, some corrupt to the core, they are household names.
Surveys from the last quarter of last year to the present show high awareness versus the low awareness of the Duterte candidates favor the Alyansa.
Which is why the next 37 days will be crucial for the administration’s desire to do away with the Dutertes in 2028 via conviction of Vice-President Inday Sara, and, for the latter, its very political existence beyond Davao.
For the administration, the task is to contain the fallout of its surrender to the ICC. For the opposition, it is sustaining the rage and converting emotions to a senatorial result that will ensure Inday Sara is not convicted.
Hence, it is existential for both camps. Sara, now that her father is detained in Den Haag, must work actively upon her return to get the numbers to ensure acquittal in the Senate. For BbM and his family’s political fortunes beyond 2028, in the sunset of his own life, an acquittal will be their doom.
Already his older sister, an independent streak who has always been candid about her opposition to many of her younger brother’s policies, has formally bolted Alyansa, casting her fate to the other side of the political equation.
Senadora Imee’s numbers in the surveys have been going down, largely because of her surname, which is currently “haram” in Mindanao and Central Visayas, the political base of the Dutertes.
If Inday Sara, now that her father is cocooned in a foreign prison, realizes her own fate is tied up to the senatorial numbers come May 12, she may have to look beyond the PDP’s candidates.
Let us now flash back to the 2007 senatorial elections, when the incumbent GMA was facing an emotional backlash because of the highly controversial 2004 elections where she was condemned for “cheating” to win by a million votes.
She had a multi-party coalition composed of well-known names in her slate. Lakas, Kampi, NPC, LDP, plus many LGU incumbents backing her up.
The Genuine Opposition, on the other hand, had likewise well-known names, such as Loren, Ping, Chiz, Alan, an Aquino who would three years later become president, and an imprisoned mutineer, Trillanes, in its slate.
The result: eight seats went to the opposition, with only two administration candidates making it, plus two independents. An emotional tsunami defeated the administration’s usual mid-term advantage.
The problem for the current opposition is it has a paucity of well-known names in its slate, but for re-electionists Bong Go and Bato de la Rosa, perhaps an imprisoned Quiboloy and a retired actor called Ipe, though conversion versus yet low awareness favors a Marcoleta and a Bondoc.
There are two kakampinks who are running as virtual independents, Kiko and Bam, and rumors have it that the Alyansa is striking an under-the-table deal with them as they are within striking distance of the Magic 12.
The ball is now in the hands of the embattled vice-president. Beyond Go and Bato, she has to manage a win by friendly forces, and it cannot be a Bam or a Kiko, who will vote for her conviction without even thinking.
How she and her supporters are able to maximize support for the Bisaya nation and Mindanao, comprising at least 33 percent of the national vote, so as to get four or five more votes to add to her sympathizers among the non-re-electionists, will test her political mettle.
Will emotions rule this time around? And will PBbM, with his approval ratings down to 14 or 16 points, as against Inday Sara’s 35, manage to make mid-term advantage prevail?