“Let’s unpack the rift, learn from history, and forge a path with hope and hard truths”
AS US-China tensions flare—driven by tariffs, counter-tariffs, and threats of “any type of war”—the Philippines finds itself trapped between giants.
This isn’t just geopolitics; it’s fishermen, farmers, and families facing an uncertain future.
Let’s unpack the rift, learn from history, and forge a path with hope and hard truths.
When tariffs turn into threats
The news report titled China Says It Is Ready for “Any Type of War” with US, published amid Beijing’s National People’s Congress in March 2025, lays bare a widening US-China chasm, propelled by President Trump’s blanket tariffs on all Chinese imports and Beijing’s swift 10-15 percent counter-tariffs on US farm goods—a retaliation that threatens American livelihoods and signals a perilous escalation in their economic and geopolitical showdown.
This is no ordinary trade skirmish; it’s a collision of ambitions—the US desperate to reclaim economic supremacy, and China, emboldened by its rise, refusing to bend.
Deepening the rift, China’s dismissal of US fentanyl accusations as a “flimsy excuse”—a charge tied to 100,000 American deaths annually—revives the mistrust of past disputes over intellectual property theft and COVID-19’s origins, casting a shadow over any hope for reconciliation.
What history warns us now
This echoes the Cold War, where US-Soviet economic and military rivalry risked escalation but held through deterrence.
The USSR’s heavy spending strained its economy—a lesson for China, facing property woes and jobless youth.
Yet China’s $17 trillion economy and $3.2 trillion reserves offer strength the Soviets lacked. The 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs, crippling trade, warn of today’s risks—amplified by global supply chains.
For the Philippines, South China Sea clashes recall history: China’s 1995 Mischief Reef seizure and Manila’s 1999 Sierra Madre response set a tense pattern, now worsened by Chinese warships in its EEZ.
Cold War U.S. bases made it a target; today’s EDCA sites and Typhon missiles revive that peril.
Filipinos facing the fallout
Fisherman Juan from Palawan dodges Chinese boats, his broken net a sign of lost livelihoods.
Mindanao farmers see export markets fade as trade wars bite. The 2024 Second Thomas Shoal clash, injuring a sailor, shows the toll—families anxious, communities frayed.
Long-term, the Philippines risks proxy conflict: China’s buildup and US treaty ties could ignite war, while trade woes deepen poverty for 16 million. Youth unemployment, at 20 percent, may climb if growth falters.
Solutions for a fragile peace
Hope remains—here’s how to act:
Revive Talks: Trump and Xi must restart direct talks, as in Trump’s first term (2017), to ease trade and military friction—a tested de-escalation step.
Empower ASEAN: The Philippines should lead ASEAN to finalize a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with Japan and Australia ensuring compliance.
Boost Resilience: The U.S. and allies must raise aid beyond $500 million—fund rural jobs and training to protect the vulnerable.
Clarify Defense: The US should affirm its treaty without provocative moves like Typhon, while Manila diversifies security within ASEAN.
The hidden twist
China’s tough stance might push away allies it seeks.
But if Beijing shifts—offering trade deals to counter US tariffs—it could gain soft power, even in the Philippines, where views waver.
This might prod the US toward cooperation, an unexpected de-escalation path—if China softens its threats.
The Philippines stands at a precipice—its fishermen, farmers, and youth deserve more than superpower fallout.
Dialogue, regional strength, and support can calm the storm.
Juan’s next catch, a farmer’s harvest, a graduate’s job—these hang in the balance. Let’s choose peace over peril, now.