“If Inday Sara is convicted, can the Duterte forces create political mayhem?”
LET us cut to the chase.
Whether the Senate under Chiz Escudero will begin the impeachment trial now or on June 2, the important question is whether or not the vice-president, Inday Sara Duterte-Carpio y Zimmermann, will be convicted.
Simply put, it is a numbers game with two-thirds of the senators voting to convict, or 16 as the magic number.
If they start the trial now, and on the assumption that they can finish it before the 19th Congress bows out, will there be 16 votes to convict?
Twelve senators will end their term by June 30. Four are bowing out after serving two: Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, Nancy Binay, and Koko Pimentel. The fifth, Sonny Angara, has resigned and is now DepEd secretary.
Of the four, three are seeking another office, Madam Cynthia and Koko are running for membership in the 20th Congress; Nancy wants to be mayor of Makati. Do they need to be on the good side of the Dutertes to clinch victory? Maybe; maybe not, depending on straws in the wind of public opinion while the trial unfolds.
Their constituencies are Metro Manilans, not in the Duterte political strongholds.
Grace Poe probably hopes to be given a position in the Marcos Cabinet, while busy campaigning for a party-list seat for her son Brian Llamanzares, banking on memories of FPJ. To clinch that seat, they do not need Mindanao.
But there are seven re-electionists, three of whom have declared support for the embattled vice-president: Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa and Imee Marcos.
Then there are Pia Cayetano, Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid and Francis Tolentino. If they feel they are in danger of losing, then the Mindanao and Central Visayas vote would matter, and they will have to weigh the political consequences of voting for conviction.
Which is why they would rather that the impeachment trial be postponed till after the elections.
Look at the possibilities, if current survey trends hold.
Unless something derails their quest prior to E-Day, Ben Tulfo and Willie Revillame, both independents, are likely to make it. They would rather have the Duterte strongholds on their side. Exposing their hand now would do them no good.
The pinklawans have Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, now hovering in the maybe win- maybe lose circle. If one or both win, they shall vote to convict.
The tragedy of the PDP and those allied with them in their 9-man slate is that only one is a sure winner. Another hovers in the brink. A third would be doable, but quite difficult.
So in the end, Inday Sara would have only Imee, Bong Go, Robinhood as sure votes, with the likelihood of Bato and Marcoleta still straws in the political wind.
Thus, the Alyansa can count on six to seven, maybe even eight of their candidates making the score come May 12, unless George Garcia’s Miru fouls up and all hell breaks loose.
But how many of the Alyansa will follow blindly the wishes of the administration, which, whether they like it or not, cannot countenance defeat, now that all swords have been unsheathed? Can Lacson, Sotto and Pia be counted upon to “follow the leader?”
The answer is “blowin’ in the wind” to quote Bob Dylan.
How about the remaining senators whose terms are up in 2028 yet?
Zubiri of Mindanao, Alan Cayetano who ran as Duterte’s VP, Mark Villar who was in Duterte’s Cabinet, Joel Villanueva of Bulacan, Loren of Antique, Malabon, Baguio, San Pablo and Batangas? The Ejercito-Estrada siblings?
Unless the President dangles goodies too difficult to resist, as in the Corona conviction, these senators will wait for the opinion signs that would be blowin’ in the wind.
One factor to consider is how the former president, still commanding the loyalty of a huge number of followers, will take an adverse outcome. In Cebu, he rallied support for his ticket by stating that his daughter’s fate would depend on the numbers.
His support is hard; the President’s support base is softened continuously by economic woes he is unable to surmount.
Meanwhile, the people are beset by seemingly intractable problems: inflation, both externally-induced and internally-produced; unemployment and under-employment with little possibilities of growth, both from a lack of investments from foreign as well as domestic capital, still on wait-and-see mode.
Plus, the threats from unpredictable Trump and a taciturn Xi.
If Inday Sara is convicted, can the Duterte forces create political mayhem?
Whichever, the year 2025 will go to waste, added to three years in PBbM’s term where nothing much has happened because of bad politics under a system that whoever is in charge, is destined to fail.