“Once allies, now adversaries, their feud has turned Mindanao into a political minefield”
ALLIANCES in Philippine politics are never built to last, but few expected the Marcos-Duterte partnership to combust this spectacularly.
Once allies, now adversaries, their feud has turned Mindanao into a political minefield—one that could either secure or shatter Marcos Jr.’s grip on power. Is this the beginning of the end for Alyansa sa Bagong Pilipinas?
Marcos’s Senate slate, armed with political heavyweights, is making a bold push into Duterte country.
But will Mindanaoans—who once delivered Marcos a landslide victory—remain loyal to him, or will they rally behind the family that has long claimed the island as its political fortress?
This isn’t just a battle for Senate seats. It’s a high-stakes contest for the future of Philippine power, one that could reshape alliances and redefine governance.
Cauldron of political challenges
Mindanao is not just another campaign stop; it is the heartland of Duterte’s political machine.
Here, Rodrigo Duterte built his tough-guy image as mayor of Davao City, and it was from here that he launched his rise to the presidency. The Duterte name still carries weight, especially in the south, where populist rhetoric and a strongman approach resonate deeply.
Marcos’s camp is banking on his 2022 victory in Mindanao, but the terrain has shifted.
With Vice President Sara Duterte openly at odds with the president, and Rodrigo Duterte backing a rival slate, the region is now a political minefield.
Marcos may be walking in with confidence, but one misstep could set off an electoral explosion.
The feud that’s shaking Filipino politics
The fallout between Marcos and Duterte is not just personal—it is emblematic of deeper fractures within Philippine politics.
The Fracturing of the Populist Vote: In 2022, the Marcos-Duterte ticket united two populist blocs—the Marcos loyalists of the north and the Duterte loyalists of the south. That coalition is now shattered. If Duterte’s camp consolidates Mindanao’s vote, it could cripple Marcos’s Senate slate and weaken his grip on power ahead of 2028.
The Battle for the Narrative: Marcos has made it clear that his campaign is a repudiation of Duterte’s legacy, particularly the bloody drug war and alleged Chinese influence. This is a risky gambit. While some Filipinos see the drug war as a stain on Duterte’s record, others still view it as a necessary evil. Will Mindanao voters see Marcos as a reformist, or as a traitor to the alliance they supported in 2022?
The Family Feud Factor: Philippine politics has always been deeply personal. Sara Duterte’s resignation from Marcos’s Cabinet was a public divorce, but the recent revelation that she allegedly considered assassinating Marcos has escalated the feud to Shakespearean proportions. The impeachment push against Duterte, spearheaded by the president’s own son, only deepens the animosity. In a nation where loyalty and betrayal drive voter sentiment, this rift could have unpredictable consequences.
A make-or-break challenge
To overcome the Duterte grip on the region, Marcos and his Alyansa Senate slate must execute a delicate balancing act. Here’s what they need to do:
Convince Mindanao That He’s the Future, Not the Past: Marcos needs to offer a compelling vision for Mindanao’s progress, beyond just repudiating Duterte. Infrastructure, economic development, and peace initiatives must take center stage.
Target the Swing Voters: Many Duterte supporters in Mindanao are pragmatic, not fanatical. If Marcos can present his Senate slate as competent and corruption-free (a tall order, given some names on the list), he might sway undecided voters.
Avoid Direct Confrontation with the Dutertes: While Marcos has thrown veiled jabs at Duterte’s record, a full-blown attack risks alienating too many Mindanaoan voters. He needs to let his messaging suggest a “new era” rather than a direct rejection of the past.
What hangs in the balance?
If Marcos succeeds in peeling away even a fraction of the Duterte base, he solidifies his hold on power and positions himself strongly for 2028.
But if Mindanao voters rally behind the Duterte slate, it signals a major political realignment.
A divided Senate could mean legislative deadlock, and a weakened Marcos could face more aggressive opposition—not just from the Dutertes, but from other factions eager to exploit the rift.
The Marcos-Duterte alliance was never built to last, and now, its collapse threatens to reshape Philippine politics for years to come.
This fight isn’t just about Mindanao or the Senate—it’s about power, legacy, and the fate of populism itself.
And as the flames of this rivalry spread, one thing is clear: the real battle has only begun.