“The potential Senate bids of the Dutertes are a testament to the enduring influence of political dynasties in the Philippines”
THE Philippine political landscape is once again in flux as former President Rodrigo Duterte and his children prepare for potential Senate bids.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. responded to this political maneuvering with a nonchalant “It’s a free country,” reflecting the uncertainty that often accompanies pre-election periods.
But beneath this seemingly casual statement lies a complex web of political strategies and historical precedents that could shape the nation’s future.
Historical background
The Philippines’ political party system has evolved significantly since the country regained its independence in 1946.
Initially dominated by the Liberal Party and the Nacionalista Party, the system saw a major shift during the martial law era under Ferdinand Marcos Sr.
The introduction of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan reshaped the political arena, centralizing power and diminishing the influence of traditional parties.
Post-martial law, the re-emergence of democracy saw a proliferation of political parties, leading to a fragmented but vibrant multiparty system.
The 1987 Constitution further decentralized political power, but this also gave rise to the phenomenon of political dynasties and shifting alliances.
Today, the Philippine political party system is characterized by fluid alliances and the dominance of political dynasties.
Parties such as Lakas-CMD, PDP-Laban, and the Nacionalista Party have become vehicles for powerful families rather than ideologically distinct entities.
The UniTeam coalition, which brought Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte to power in 2022, exemplifies this trend of strategic partnerships over ideological commitments.
Advantages of the administration during midterm elections
Historically, midterm elections have favored the incumbent administration in the Philippines.
The control of executive resources and influence over local government units often translates into electoral advantages.
For instance, the 2007 midterm elections saw then President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s allies securing significant victories, leveraging state resources and political machinery.
However, administrations also face substantial challenges during midterms.
Public dissatisfaction, economic downturns, and corruption scandals can erode the ruling party’s popularity.
The 2019 midterm elections, for example, saw President Rodrigo Duterte’s candidates struggling in some areas despite his widespread popularity, due in part to controversies surrounding his administration’s policies.
Likelihood of three Dutertes running for senator
Strengths:
• Political Clout: The Dutertes have a strong political base, particularly in Mindanao, and their brand of politics has national appeal.
• Name Recognition: The Duterte name carries significant weight, bolstered by Rodrigo Duterte’s tenure as president and Sara Duterte’s current role as vice president.
Weaknesses:
• Fragmented Alliances: Sara Duterte’s departure from the UniTeam coalition and her shifting political allegiances may weaken their collective power.
• Public Perception: The Duterte administration’s controversial policies, particularly the war on drugs, have left a divisive legacy.
Opportunities:
• Voter Base: The Dutertes can capitalize on their established voter base and leverage local government support in Davao and surrounding regions.
• Strategic Alliances: Forming new political alliances could bolster their chances, as indicated by their potential to align with parties like NPC and NUP.
Threats:
• Vulnerability in Hometown Positions: The Dutertes’ dominance in Davao City could be challenged by strong local candidates, jeopardizing their control over key political positions.
• National Opposition: A potential coalition of opposition forces, including remnants of the Liberal Party and other anti-Duterte groups, could pose significant threats.
Recommendations
For the Duterte camp:
• Solidify Alliances: Strengthen political alliances to ensure a unified front. This might involve mending fences with former allies or forging new partnerships.
• Focus on Governance: Demonstrate effective governance at the local level to maintain voter confidence and counter opposition narratives.
For the Marcos administration:
• Maintain Coalition Stability: Ensure the stability of the UniTeam coalition by managing alliances and addressing internal conflicts promptly.
• Leverage Executive Resources: Utilize executive resources effectively to support allied candidates and reinforce political influence across regions.
• Address Public Concerns: Tackle key issues such as inflation, unemployment, and social welfare to maintain public support and counter any opposition narratives.
For the opposition:
• Unified Front: Form a broad coalition to present a formidable challenge. Historical examples, such as the 2010 election of Benigno Aquino III, show the effectiveness of a united opposition.
• Public Engagement: Engage with the electorate through grassroots campaigns and address key issues like corruption and human rights to sway public opinion.
The potential Senate bids of the Dutertes are a testament to the enduring influence of political dynasties in the Philippines.
As the nation heads towards another pivotal election, the intricate dance of alliances, strategies, and voter sentiments will determine the outcome.
The landscape remains as unpredictable as ever, and the stakes could not be higher.