Earlier this year, the Armed Forces of the Philippines reported the current strength of the Maoist New People’s Army had gone down to 2,000 regular fighters from its peak of 25,000 in the 1980s.
Of late, the AFP spokesman said the figure had gone down even further to just 1,500 fighters spread out in a few guerrilla zones.
Hence, the government had reached strategic victory over the NPA, but not total victory which would come when the NPA itself would wither on the vine because of more casualties in the battlefield and widespread demoralization.
With the vastly reduced NPA armed strength and presumably its mass base due to battlefield losses and surrenders, the government could have opted to go for the jugular, so to speak, and run after the remaining active rebels with hammer and tongs.
But it appears the Marcos Jr. administration has decided not to further unleash the dogs of war against the rebels, but to convince them instead to sit down across the negotiating table to discuss ways to achieve lasting peace.
The recent agreement in Oslo for the resumption of peace talks between the Philippine government and the National Democratic Front is a welcome development as it offers the prospect of an end to 55 years of the armed insurgency that has cost no less than an estimated 40,000 losses on both sides and resources that could have been spent for economic development and anti-poverty programs.
The peace process leading to a comprehensive agreement could take time and hit many snags along the way due to differences in position on key issues.
One possible obstacle to successful political negotiations would be the lack of a bilateral ceasefire while the talks are ongoing.
If the fighting in the countryside continues while the negotiators argue across the table in a foreign venue, that could certainly raise accusations of bad faith and lack of sincerity by either side.
The Communist Party of the Philippines has demanded that for the peace talks to resume, the government should release from jail all NDF consultants and 800 political prisoners, dismantle the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, and repeal the designation of the CPP-NPA-NDF as ‘terrorist’ organizations.
Will the government side accede to these immediate demands?
And how would the CPP-NPA-NDF react if the government asks them to stop the so-called “revolutionary taxation” in areas where the rebels operate, which the government claims is extortion?
We really don’t know at this point.
At any rate, we hope the agreement to resume peace negotiations will proceed in the coming weeks with both sides acting in good faith and sincerity in attaining peace by putting in place confidence-building measures that would bring the talks to a successful conclusion as soon as possible.
