Cloud clusters in Luzon could potentially develop into a low pressure area (LPA), and eventually become a tropical depression over the weekend.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said should the LPA strengthen into a tropical depression, it would be named “Julian.”
An LPA outside the PAR is also being monitored.
The cloud clusters north of Luzon have been forecast to become an LPA within Thursday or by Friday.
“A possible LPA today (Thursday) or Friday. Over the weekend, it could possibly become a tropical depression and stay in Northern Luzon, particularly east of Batanes,” weather forecaster Benison Estareja said.
PAGASA further said at least four to seven more tropical depressions are likely to enter the Philippine area of responsibility before 2024 ends.
PAGASA said they are expecting two or three storms this October, one or two cyclones in November, and another one or two in December.
Analiza Solis, PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief, said tropical depressions tend to make landfall and cross the country within this period.
Based on historical data, most disturbances in October made landfall in Luzon, while those in November and December mostly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and eastern Mindanao.
Amid a possible weak La Niña, strong typhoons could also be anticipated.
“Historically, we see a weak La Niña (in the) last quarter of the year. We have more occurrences of super typhoons and typhoon category (storms), (and) at the same time rain-bearing storms,” Solis said.
