New COVID-19 cases could go up to as high as 15,000 a day before easing off, because it would take about seven to 10 days for the lockdown in Metro Manila to take effect, an infectious disease expert said on Sunday.
The government placed Metro Manila and other provinces under an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) only on Aug. 6 due to the threat of the more contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus.
“It's possible that it would reach 15,000 cases. From 8,000, cases already rose to 11,000, so this might still go up,” Dr. Rontgene Solante, chairman of the Adult Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine unit of the San Lazaro Hospital said on Dobol B TV after he was asked if cases would reach more than 15,000.
On Saturday, the Philippines documented 11,021 fresh cases of COVID-19, the highest since April 11, 2021.
On the other hand, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Saturday said active COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) are projected to multiply by the thousands even with weeks of stricter community quarantines.
Vergeire said the country is already seeing the impact of the highly contagious Delta variant with the continued surge in new COVID-19 cases.
Even with the ECQ, active cases in Metro Manila may still reach around 18,000 by the end of September, she said.
The number of COVID-19 cases is also increasing among those in their early 30s to 40s, Solante said.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said those vulnerable to COVID-19 are people with comorbidity and senior citizens.
Solante, however, revealed that private hospitals and San Lazaro Hospital observed an increase of cases among those in the younger age group.
“Even those who are 27 years old, or those in their early 30s and 40s [get COVID-19]. What we are looking at here, because of the transmissibility, is that the virus is not choosing anyone,” Solante said in Filipino. “We know that if the viral load is high, transmission will also worsen.”
Solante said several hospitals also found out that those unvaccinated are more likely to get severe infections compared to those who received vaccines.
Earlier, Dr. Ted Herbosa, special adviser to the National Task Force against COVID-19, said nine out of 10 ICU patients in the country have not received vaccines against the coronavirus.
Solante also said the occupancy rate in Manila-based San Lazaro Hospital's health care capacity is already increasing.
He said their utilization rate for COVID-19 bed capacity reached 60 percent and the intensive care unit occupancy soared to more than 80 percent.
Despite the possibility of a further spike in cases, Solante said the lockdown is still effective because it will intensify contact tracing.
'We imposed a lockdown so contact tracing is easier because patients are just in the community,” Solante said.
As virus infections rise, the highly contagious Delta variant cases also went up to 450. Analysts say the actual figure is most likely higher because of the limited amount of genome sequencing that can be done to detect the variant. (See full story online at manilastandard.net)
The Department of Health said the Delta variant has been detected in all Metro Manila areas, the center of the country's economy. (See full story online at manilastandard.net)
The Philippines logged 9,671 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of infections to 1,658,916. The DOH said the relatively low case count was due to lower laboratory output on Friday.
The DOH reported 287 new fatalities, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 29,122.
The DOH also reported 8,079 persons who recovered, bringing the total recoveries to 1,552,278.
There were 77,516 active cases, of which 93.2 percent were mild, 2.8 percent were asymptomatic, 1 percent were critical, 1.7 percent were severe, and 1.2 percent were moderate.
Nationwide, 64 percent of the ICU beds, 55 percent of the isolation beds, 56 percent of the ward beds, and 45 percent of the ventilators, were in use.
In Metro Manila, 63 percent of the ICU beds, 56 percent of the isolation beds, 57 percent of the ward beds, and 47 percent of the ventilators, were in use.
Experts have expressed concern over the arrival in the country of the more contagious Delta variant of the virus.
One government scientist said the Delta variant can infect up to eight people at a time, who in turn can each infect eight others, which is what caused the recent surges in Indonesia and India.
Meanwhile, the country struggles to ramp up its vaccine rollout. The government has said that it wants to inoculate 58 million Filipinos by the end of the year, down from an initial 70 million target.
Meanwhile, with Metro Manila under lockdown, police arrested, fined, or warned 20,000 people for various violations of public health guidelines.
The Joint Task Force (JTF) Covid Shield data released late Saturday showed that 5,781 of the 20,511 violators were sanctioned for breaking curfew hours while 14,775 violated minimum public health standards.
In the National Capital Region (NCR) which is under the most restrictive enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from Aug. 6 to 20, the JTF said 4,394 were warned, fined, and released for filing, while 2,201 underwent community service “from Friday to 4 a.m. Saturday” for curfew violation.
Laguna, which is also under ECQ, has logged 471 violators, while Cavite and Rizal, both under the less restrictive modified ECQ (MECQ), have recorded 530 and 370 violators, it added.
Bulacan, which was placed under general community quarantine (GCQ) with heightened restrictions has only six violators, all of them were fined.
Of the 14,755 violators of the minimum public health standard, 2,749 were found not wearing face masks with 1,644 of them recorded in Metro Manila, while 3,229 violators, including 1,379 in NCR, were apprehended for the improper wearing of face masks.
The police also apprehended 5,649 individuals for not wearing face shields and 2,201 for the improper wearing of face shields in the NCR Plus bubble, the JTF said.
It also recorded 902 violators of physical distancing with 486 of them recorded in Metro Manila.
Meanwhile, a total of 494 individuals were denied entry into the NCR Plus bubble while 58 individuals failed to show proof that they are authorized persons outside of residence or APORs.
In a statement on Sunday, PNP chief Gen. Guillermo Eleazar vowed to intensify the implementation of quarantine measures in various quarantine control points in the NCR Plus bubble as well in other high-risk areas of the country amid the increasing Covid-19 cases due to the Delta variant.
On Saturday, the number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila breached 2,800, the highest number since May 2, when the NCR was under a modified ECQ.
The independent research outfit OCTA Research Group said the reproduction rate of COVID-19 in Metro Manila went up to 1.80 from 1.56 a week ago.
OCTA said that the strong upward trend and level of new COVID-19 cases in NCR is like that seen from March 9 to 15 this year before ECQ was reimposed on Metro Manila.
“The rapid growth rate of cases in the NCR strongly suggests the possibility that the surge is driven by the Delta variant, and the steady increase in the reproduction number may be due to the replacement of the Delta variant over the previous dominant variants (i.e. Alpha and Beta),” OCTA said.
The group said 31 percent of sampled cases had the Delta variant, an increase from the 16 percent two weeks ago, based on data from bio surveillance conducted by the DOH.
In other developments:
* Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso said 65 percent of COVID-19 patients in hospitals owned by the city are unvaccinated and said the Manila COVID-19 Field Hospital in Luneta is nearing full capacity. He urged residents to get vaccinated.
* President Rodrigo Duterte approved the release of the COVID-19 National Vaccine Indemnity Fund to compensate vaccinated persons for adverse reactions to the vaccines, said Senator Christopher Go. Go, chairman of the Senate health committee, said this is a trust fund that will compensate anyone inoculated through the COVID-19 Vaccination Program in the event of death, permanent disability, or hospitalization due to any severe adverse effect following immunization.