Weather disturbance “Auring” weakened into a tropical storm and began moving westward on Friday at 2 p.m.
It is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga region on Sunday morning, with possible re-intensification into a severe tropical storm likely prior to landfall.
Meanwhile, Regions V (Bicol) and IV-B (Mimaropa) in southern Luzon are facing risk for possible flooding and rain-induced landslides.
Rain from the northeast monsoon or “amihan” and the approaching severe tropical storm Auring (international name ‘Dujuan’) will raise such risk in these areas, noted Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) hydrologist Edgar dela Cruz.
“However, further intensification into a typhoon within the forecast period remains less likely as of this time,” PAGASA said.
“Auring” will likely weaken while crossing the archipelago due to significant terrain interaction and dry air intrusion from the northeast monsoon.
As of 4 p.m., the center of “Auring” was estimated at 405 kms east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.
It was moving westward at 15 kms per hour, packing maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
Tropical cyclone wind signal no. 1 was raised over Southern Leyte, the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental and the eastern portion of Bukidnon.
“If amihan combines with ‘Auring,’ there’ll be a higher chance for more rainfall that will increase the possibility for flooding and landslides,” dela Cruz said.
He said Bicol and Mimaropa have been receiving light rains but will likely be wetter when “Auring” affects these areas amidst the amihan.
PAGASA weather forecaster Chris Perez is also not discounting the possibility of amihan and “Auring” affecting southern Luzon this weekend.
The combined effects of both weather systems can bring moderate with at times heavy rainfall, he said.
“Auring” was spotted 535 km east-southeast of Surigao del Sur province’s Hinatuan municipality as of 10 a.m. Friday and packing maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near its center aside from gustiness of up to 115 kph, PAGASA said then in its 11 a.m. severe weather bulletin.
PAGASA said the storm might generally move northwestwards while traversing Region XIII (Caraga), the Visayas and Mimaropa this Sunday (Feb. 21) and Monday (Feb. 22).
Light to moderate with at times heavy rain is possible this weekend over Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes and Masbate provinces in Bicol as well as parts of the Visayas and Mindanao, PAGASA said.
Scattered to widespread flooding — including flash floods — and rain-induced landslides may strike during heavy and prolonged rainfall particularly in areas that are either highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards, noted PAGASA.
“Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels,” it added.
PAGASA expects “Auring” to make a landfall in Caraga on Sunday but does not anticipate this weather system’s intensification into a typhoon soon.
“Auring” will likely weaken while crossing the country, PAGASA said.