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Saturday, April 27, 2024

PH population seen to grow by 30m in 2055

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The country’s population is projected to grow by nearly 30 million, Statistics Authority (PSA).

Based on the 2020 census-based national population projections, the Philippine population is projected to reach 138.67 million by 2055.

In a span of 35 years, around 29.47 million people will be added to the projected midyear population of 109.20 million in 2020.

The PSA said the average annual growth rate is estimated to decline from 0.84 percent for the period 2020-2025 to 0.35 percent for the period 2050-2055.

Citizens aged 60 years and over comprised about 8.5 percent of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage share of this age group is expected to increase to about 19.6 percent of the projected midyear population in 2055.

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On the other hand, the percentage of children under five years old is estimated to decrease from 10.2 percent in 2020 to 6.0 percent in 2055.

The PSA said females of childbearing ages—15 to 49 years old—comprised abo one-fourth (25.6 percent) of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage of this age group is projected to slightly decrease to 23.3 percent in 2055.

The working-age population, that is 15 to 64 years old, accounted for 64 percent of the midyear population in 2020. This group is expected to comprise 67.0 percent of the projected midyear population by 2055.

The PSA also said the 2020 census-based national population projections are available in three fertility scenarios.

“For Scenario 1, the total fertility rate (TFR) for years 2021 and 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey, and assumed to rebound to a TFR of 2.1 children, which is the replacement level, from 2025 until 2055,” PSA said.

Scenario 2 assumes a slow decline from 2.1 children in 2020 to 1.9 children in 2021 and 2022 and 1.9 children from 2025 until 2055.

Finally, Scenario 3 assumes a continuous decline such that by 2055, the TFR is at 1.7 children.

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