A recent survey reveals that if the May 2025 senatorial elections were held today, 16 candidates would likely secure seats in the Senate, with Congressman Erwin Tulfo leading the pack.
The survey by OCTA Research, which polled adult Filipinos, indicates a strong preference for familiar faces, with a majority of the probable winners being current or former senators.
Tulfo garnered a commanding 66% voting preference, placing him statistically in the top two positions. Re-electionist Senator Christopher “Bong” Go follows closely with 62%, securing a statistical ranking of 1st to 3rd. Independent candidate Ben Tulfo also performed strongly, receiving 59% support and placing him statistically between 2nd and 3rd. Re-electionist Senator Ramon Revilla secured 51%, placing him in the 4th to 5th range.
The survey highlights a mix of political affiliations among the frontrunners. A majority of the top 16 are associated with the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition, while two are running under the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDPLBN). Three candidates are running as independents.
Former Senator Vicente Sotto III received 47% support, placing him statistically between 4th and 7th. Former Makati Mayor Abby Binay and Senator Lito Lapid both secured 43%, placing them in the 5th to 13th statistical range. Camille Villar and former Senator Emmanuel Pacquiao both received approximately 40%, placing them in the 6th to 15th range.
A cluster of candidates, including Senator Pilar Juliana Cayetano, Willie Revillame, Senator Imelda Marcos, and former Senator Panfilo Lacson, share statistical rankings between 6th and 16th.
Benhur Abalos and re-electionist Senator Ronald Dela Rosa are statistically placed between 8th and 16th, with 36% and 35% support, respectively. Senator Francis Tolentino completes the list of probable winners with 34% support, placing him between 10th and 16th.
The survey also indicates a strong preference for candidates with prior political experience. Seven incumbent senators, three former senators, and one former mayor are among the 16 probable winners. The results suggest a potential continuation of established political figures in the Senate.
Senatorial candidates, particularly those aligned with the administration, are notably silent on the potential arrest and trial of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC), a silence attributed to fears of alienating a portion of their voter base, Professor Aries Arugay of the University of the Philippines-Diliman Department of Political Science said.
Arugay, quoted by ABS-CBN News, also said candidates are wary of taking a stance on this “hyperpartisan” issue.
He believes that the issue could significantly impact voter preferences, potentially boosting candidates endorsed by Duterte while negatively affecting those aligned with the current administration.
“There are some who are saying Duterte-endorsed candidates may gain, and administration candidates may take a hit because of this,” Arugay stated during a recent forum. He explained that this perceived risk is likely the reason for the administration candidates’ reluctance to comment on the polarizing matter.
Arugay noted that the true impact of the Duterte ICC issue on senatorial candidates’ standing will only become clear in upcoming surveys conducted this week. He also acknowledged the possibility of “increased sympathy” for Duterte and his endorsed candidates, which could further complicate the political landscape for those remaining silent.