PRESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he will ask Congress leaders to grant him “special power” to slash excise tax on petroleum products should Dubai crude oil surpass $80 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
This as industry sources said consumers face hefty oil price hikes of up to P10.20 per liter for diesel and P5.50 per liter for gasoline next week, with the Department of Energy saying it was “hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.”
“I am going to talk to the leaders in both the House and in the Senate to maybe — this is not yet a sure thing, but this is something that we are discussing and it could be helpful — is to give me, the President, the authority to reduce excise tax on petroleum products should Dubai crude exceed $80 per barrel,” Mr. Marcos said.
Fuel subsidies may also be triggered if the Dubai crude averages at least $80 per barrel for one month.
Acting Finance Secretary Frederick Go added: “To be clear, this (special power) does not mean the authority will be automatically exercised. It is a precautionary measure — a ready policy tool that the President may use, if necessary, to act swiftly in protecting Filipino consumers and safeguarding the broader economy.”
Speaker Faustino Dy III, for his part, said the House of Representatives is ready to pass a measure authorizing the President to suspend excise taxes on fuel if global oil prices surge.
“We support the President’s goal of protecting the public from the impact of rising oil prices in the global market. If the price of Dubai crude goes beyond 80 dollars per barrel, our people will clearly feel it—in transport fares, in food prices, and in other basic goods,” Dy said.
“That’s why the House is open to coordinating with the Senate to study and, if necessary, amend the law so the President can be given enough authority to reduce the excise tax during periods of severe increases in oil prices,” he added.
The US and Israeli attacks on the Islamic republic have upended regional energy flows, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz – through which about a fifth of global oil transits – effectively closed off.
The war has also fueled fears of a fresh energy crisis that could ramp up inflation.
Iran has widened its targets to include energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar — where the state-run energy firm suspended LNG production.
On Monday, a drone struck state oil giant Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery — one of the region’s biggest — which forced it to halt some operations.
Oxford Economics said it expects oil prices to rise to almost $80 a barrel in the second quarter before eventually dropping back to $60.
“The duration of the conflict and the nature of any regime change in Iran is key to understanding the economic impact, but these remain highly uncertain,” Oxford said.
The Eurasia Group, which projected prices of $75-$85 a barrel as a more likely outcome, added: “The combination of heightened risk to traffic, the long-term loss of Iranian exports, and the short-term loss of other regional production would be enough to push the Brent per barrel price close to $100 per barrel.”
President Marcos assured the public the Philippines has enough oil reserves to cushion the impact of global price volatility triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
“First of all, let me assure everyone that we have a sufficient supply of oil,” Mr. Marcos said.
Citing updated figures, the President said the country has 50.5 days’ worth of diesel, 51.5 days of fuel oil, 51.5 days of gasoline, 67.5 days of kerosene, 58 days of jet fuel, and 29 days of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
“So, we are okay for that period of time,” Marcos said, adding that oil-derived products, including fertilizer inputs, are also sufficiently supplied.
Mr. Marcos said the government has prepared several scenarios in case of prolonged disruptions, citing US estimates that tensions could last four to five weeks even as he expressed hope that the situation would stabilize sooner.
“And hopefully, before the four to five weeks, the level of intensity of the fighting will come down. In other words, that commerce will proceed in a more or less normal way, number one. And secondly, that the oil production will start to normalize,” he said.
One scenario assumes Dubai crude prices ranging from $80 to $90 per barrel for two months. That projection initially factored in continued exports from Iran, although Mr. Marcos acknowledged that assumption may no longer be realistic given the evolving crisis.
The Department of Energy said it will ask oil firms to stagger the price increase to minimize the impact on consumers as it assured the public that the country’s fuel supply remains “sufficient and stable.”
The DOE also directed oil companies to submit contingency measures starting today (Wednesday) based on the current situation or in the event it is prolonged or escalates.
Global oil prices soared by more than $20 per barrel, according to Rino Abad, director of the DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau, in a television interview.
He said every $1 increase or decrease in global oil prices translates to a change of P0.30 to P0.50 per liter in domestic pump prices.
An oil industry player said estimated movements on domestic pump prices next week—based on March 2, 2026, Mean of Platts Singapore data—showed diesel will increase by P10 to P10.20 per liter, while gasoline will go up by P5.30 to P5.50 per liter.
Abad said kerosene is expected to increase by P7 to P10 per liter.
“We should stagger the increase because it is large enough to spread out,” Abad said.
Abad also urged consumers to look for retail stations that offer discounts of up to P5 per liter and to implement energy efficiency measures.
Garin said the last “big-time” oil price movement to impact consumers was during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in June 2022, when Dubai crude reached $113.24 per barrel. That conflict pushed pump prices to P83 per liter for gasoline, P84 for diesel and P87 for kerosene.
Garin said she instructed the OIMB to closely monitor pump prices to ensure no oil companies or gasoline stations abuse the current situation. With AFP
