Filipinos are having fewer children than needed to replace the population as total fertility rates plummeted from four children in 1993 to 1.8 by 2022, according to a study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).
The findings place the country below the 2.1 replacement level required to sustain population size over time. While the decline mirrors global trends, researchers found that many Filipino couples are failing to achieve their desired family size due to structural barriers ranging from poor transport to high housing costs.
The study titled “Do men matter in fertility outcomes? Evidence from spousal dynamics in the Philippines” was authored by PIDS researchers Tania Dew Perez and Dr. Michael Abrigo.
Using 30 years of data from the Philippine National Demographic and Health Survey, the authors found that male and female fertility patterns have converged, suggesting that shared socioeconomic forces now dictate household decisions.
The data revealed a stark divide between income groups. Poorer households continue to have more children than intended, averaging between 2.5 and 2.9, which reflects an unmet need for contraception.
Wealthy families average between 1.2 and 1.5 children, consistently falling short of their desired family size. In Metro Manila, the average for women has dropped to just above 1 child.
Economic and logistical constraints are primary drivers of these trends. The study cited long commutes, career interruptions for mothers, and the high cost of urban living as significant deterrents.
“The Philippines’ chronic transportation crisis is deeply intertwined with housing problems,” the authors said.
They noted that families in Metro Manila often face 3-to-4-hour daily commutes, forcing a choice between cramped housing near work or distant homes that steal time from childcare.
The researchers suggested that while the Reproductive Health Act of 2012 improved access to family planning, policies should now evolve.
They said that supporting families requires addressing employment stability, affordable childcare and the transport crisis to help couples meet their personal fertility goals.
With the population expected to age, the shift carries long-term implications for the labor supply and fiscal sustainability.
The researchers said that excluding men from family planning data may overlook critical dynamics necessary for designing effective social programs.
