A potential weather disturbance is brewing outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and may enter the country about a week before Christmas, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday.
According to PAGASA, the system has a low to moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
If it intensifies, it may affect the eastern portions of Mindanao, the Visayas, and Southern Luzon. Once it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named “Querubin.”
Based on its 5:00 p.m. weather advisory, heavy to intense rains attributed to the shear line will fall on Quezon Province by Thursday. The weather disturbance will also affect Isabela, Aurora Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes in the coming days.
PAGASA earlier said it forecasts the potential storm to enter PAR between December 16 and 22, based on its latest weather analysis. While the system currently resembles a tropical cyclone-like vortex, it is too early to determine its exact path or intensity.
“We expect that a tropical cyclone-like vortex near the southern part of the tropical cyclone advisory domain may form and possibly move toward the direction of the Visayas and Southern Luzon area,” PAGASA said on Tuesday.
Aside from this, the weather bureau said rains brought by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will continue to affect the western section of Mindanao and Palawan in the coming days.
The Philippines experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, with October and November alone seeing six storms that left 171 people dead and thousands homeless this year.
These weather events also caused significant damage to crops and livestock, highlighting the vulnerability of the country to extreme weather conditions.
Authorities advise the public to keep monitoring weather updates and prepare for possible impacts during the holiday season.
