Severe Tropical Storm “Kristine” (international name: Trami) is now exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the state weather bureau announced on Friday.
PAGASA in an 11 am weather advisory, said that “Kristine” is moving west northwestward at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour with maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near the center and packing gusts of up to 115 kilometers per hour.
Its center was last estimated at 255 km west northwest of Bacnotan, La Union or 255 km west southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur.
As it moves over the West Philippine Sea, PAGASA says that “Kristine” is expected to gradually intensify.
“There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales,” PAGASA warned.
The weather disturbance is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon or evening.
Based on a developing forecast situation, however, “Kristine” will continue moving westward over the West Philippine Sea until tomorrow, loop counterclockwise on Sunday and Monday, then move eastward for the remainder of the forecast period.
This scenario, according to PAGASA, depends on the behavior of the tropical cyclone east of the PAR region and the behavior of other synoptic weather systems surrounding “Kristine” while over the West Philippine Sea.
“While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out. However, a weakening trend is expected by early next week due to a possible surge of northeasterly wind flow over the West Philippine Sea.”
