Despite colder days, Metro Manila is experiencing dry spell characterized by below-normal rainfall for three consecutive months or way-below normal rainfall in the past two months, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (Pagasa).
At least 18 other areas are under dry spell, while 23 others are experiencing dry conditions. Drought has been affecting Apayao, Bataan, Cagayan, Cavite, Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Palawan and Zambales.
Pagasa said a strong El Niño phenomenon is present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is forecast to stay until March to May this year.
The western section of Luzon, including the National Capital Region, must brace for less rain in February. The western section of the Visayas and Mindanao, except its eastern provinces, are expected to experience below-normal rain next month.
The rest of the central and eastern sections of the country will continue experiencing below-normal rainfall. With the anticipated transition of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to neutral, normal rainfall will return in several parts of the country in May through June.
Pagasa said the colder temperatures over the country may persist until February due to northeast monsoon as well as the cold, dry air mass over Siberia blowing toward the Philippines.
Based on Pagasa’s outlook, potential drought is likely in Ilocos, parts of Cordillera, Central Luzon and other places in Luzon by the end of January. The phenomenon is forecast to peak in April.
Some 56 areas from Luzon and parts of the Visayas and Mindanao could probably face drought while Mindanao is expecting mostly dry spells.
Pagasa Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Solis said with El Niño advancing well into the warm and dry season beginning March, it is possible that 2024 could be one of the warmest years for the country.
Solis urged parents and school administrators to come up with preparatory measures for warmer school days once the northeast monsoon or “hanging amihan” ends.