Daily COVID-19 infections may reach up to 5,000 in January due to the current holiday activities, an infectious diseases expert said on Friday.
Dr. Rontgene Solante said however that fresh infections may not exceed that figure amid the population’s immunity.
This developed as Philippines has detected its first four cases of the BF.7 omicron subvariant of the coronavirus, the Department of Health said, adding that it projected daily cases of COVID-19 to reach more than 4,100 by January 15.
According to the agency, BF.7 is said to be a sublineage of the globally dominant BA.5—the one fueling the current COVID surge in China—and has been flagged by researchers “due to its potential to be more transmissible than the wild-type BA.5 and immune evading properties.”
But available evidence for the new sublineage does not seem to suggest worse disease severity compared to the original omicron subvariant.
“If I’m going to give my projection or possible estimate based on previous events and gatherings, I think we will not reach the 25,000 or 30,000 cases last January of this year because of the Omicron variant,” said Solante during a public briefing.
In a statement, the DOH said: “The Department of Health reiterates the need to put more emphasis on other factors such as wearing of best-fitting face masks, isolating when sick, doubling-up protection via vaccines and boosters, and ensuring good airflow because these are the measures that we can address and control, rather than focusing on the presence of a transmissible variant.”
In related developments, the DOH said severe and critical admissions were also expected to reach 2,252 admissions by mid-January.
“However, we reiterate that there are many factors or measures to consider as to whether an area’s increase in COVID-19 cases and projections may or may not happen. This means metrics such as transmission rate, contact rate, and longer durations of infectiousness are not sole drivers of transmission,” the DOH said in a statement.
“Our situation now is more stable because a lot of us are vaccinated and already had booster shots. And despite that we have variants [of Omicron], our hospitals are not being filled with COVID-19 patients because we have population immunity and if there are cases, there are mild, except in vulnerable population where an infection [of COVID-19 go with other [complications],” Solante said.
Based on government records, at least 73.7 million Filipinos are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Of that number, 21 million got a booster shot in addition to their primary doses.
According to DOH, COVID-19 cases have been on a plateau from Dec. 16 to 22 at 973 or 5 percent lower compared to the week prior.
Healthcare utilization remains to be low risk at 21.73 percent, while severe and critical admissions make up 10.57 percent of total COVID-19 related admissions.
The DOH said with the expected increase in mobility during the holiday season, projections had had given an estimate of daily cases in the country to reach 4,114 by January 15.
“In this scenario, severe and critical admissions are expected to reach 2,252 admissions by mid-January as well,” said the agency.
It urged local governments to continue vaccination efforts and increase the coverage of booster doses especially among the vulnerable population.
Meanwhile, the DOH recorded a 21.73 percent utilization rate of total available COVID-19 beds, while severe and critical admissions made up 10.57 percent of total COVID-19 related admissions, including those in the emergency room as of December 21.
“Given this, it is important that local governments continue their vaccination efforts to increase booster dose coverage in the country, especially for the vulnerable population, in order to protect them from the severe and critical effects brought about by the disease,” the DOH said.
The country’s total COVID-19 tally is currently at 4,060,236, according to the DOH’s latest data.
Among the regions with the most cases in the past two weeks were the National Capital Region with 5,164, followed by Calabarzon with 2,253, Central Luzon with 1,105, Western Visayas with 618, and Cagayan Valley with 502.
At least 752 more patients defeated the viral disease bringing the recovery tally to 3,978,049.
The death toll, meanwhile, also climbed to 65,193 with 21 new fatalities.