The COVID-19 reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to 4.69, OCTA Research Group fellow Dr. Guido David said Wednesday.
David said a decreasing reproduction rate indicated that the upward trend in fresh infections was slowing down.
He said this could mean that the number of cases were still increasing but at a “slower pace.”
“Reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 4.69. The reproduction number was at 6.16 on Jan. 2. This is a good sign. Until then, let us stay safe everyone and follow best health practices,” David said in a tweet.
However, David said he was not certain if the COVID-19 cases are already at its peak.
“In past surges, a peak is always preceded by a decreasing reproduction number. Are we close to the peak in NCR? Hopefully. Because the trends being observed are based on limited data, there is still uncertainty when the peak might happen,” David said.
On Tuesday, OCTA said Metro Manila was experiencing a “severe outbreak” with its average daily attack rate (ADAR) increasing to 89.42 percent, up from only 12.71 percent from Dec. 28, 2021 to Jan. 3, 2022. It then increased more than seven times in the Jan. 4 to 10 period.
ADAR pertains to the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the COVID-19 case surge in the Philippines was still in its acceleration phase, as the number of infections in other regions are observed to be increasing.
Meanwhile, amid the community transmission in NCR, DOH spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire said the policy tended to shift and the DOH was focused on community interventions.
“Right now, number one, contact tracing is not that much prioritized anymore because we know that in each household, the possibility or the likelihood that there is one positive individual is very high,” she said.
At the same time, she said the agency would be prioritizing the testing of the A1, A2, and A3 groups.
“Our testing before, what we are doing before to detect who is positive so that we can immediately isolate and quarantine, becomes of second nature right now because we would like to prioritize our A1, A2, and A3,” she said.
“Now for community interventions, the most important right now would be isolation,” Vergeire added.