Infections accelerate with no let-up as new tally soars to 4,600
As the positivity rate for COVID-19 shot up to 19.6 percent, the Philippines logged 4,600 new cases Sunday, leading pandemic researchers to warn that the numbers may surpass those of previous coronavirus surges.
OCTA fellow Guido David said the growth in new infections was not slowing down, and was in fact accelerating, and concentrated in Metro Manila.
“Right now, if you look at the raw numbers, it looks like we’re going to surpass the numbers that we’ve seen in past surges,” he said.
David said Metro Manila’s single-day positivity rate has reached 28 percent, adding that the highest positivity rate in the previous surge was at 30 percent.
A worst case scenario is that the capital region will record more than 10,000 additional infections in a day, he said.
“It seems like we’re heading there,” he said.
Public health adviser Dr. Tony Leachon, in a separate Teleradyo interview, estimated that daily new cases may reach 20,000.
Sunday’s tally of new cases brought the total case count to 2,851,931, amid fears that the recent spike in cases has been driven by the highly infectious Omicron variant of the coronavirus. So far, 14 cases of the Omicron variant have been detected, including three local cases.
The positivity rate of 19.6 percent was well above the 5 percent recommended by the World Health Organization.
Active infections stood at 21,418, of which 769 are asymptomatic, 15,644 are mild, 3,081 are moderate, 1,589 are severe, and 335 are in critical condition.
The regions with the most cases in the past two weeks were the National Capital Region with 3,279 infections, Region 4-A or CALabarzon with 676, and Region 3 or Central Luzon with 252.
The 25 new fatalities reported Sunday pushed the COVID-19 death toll to 51,570.
The Department of Health (DOH) said recoveries climbed by 535 to 2,778,943.
The DOH said 19.6 percent of the 26,122 people tested on Dec. 31 were found positive for COVID-19.
The latest data showed that 22 percent of 3,500 intensive care unit (ICU) beds for COVID-19 patients nationwide were in use.
At least 14 percent of the 12,000 ward beds in the country were being used, while 26 percent of the 3,700 ward beds in the National Capital Region (NCR) were occupied.
Amid the sharp rise in cases, the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) placed the National Capital Region under Alert Level 3 from Jan. 3 to 15.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said on Friday that the highly transmissible Omicron variant may already be responsible for this rise in COVID-19 cases.
The independent OCTA Research Group, meanwhile, said the country will see an increase in COVID-19 infections in the coming days, with the numbers possibly surpassing figures from past surges.
Dr. Maricar Limpin, president of the Philippine College of Physicians, reiterated the concern of health workers, who will be at risk because of their exposure to COVID-19 patients.
But David said there is a possibility that hospitalization “won’t be as bad” compared to past surges, because of the high vaccination rate in Metro Manila and other areas.
It was also possible that most patients will only experience mild symptoms, he added, but also warned that “there will still be some cases that will be severe and critical.”
David and Leachon agreed that it is highly likely that the surge is driven by the highly contagious Omicron variant, which has also triggered a rise in COVID-19 cases in other countries.
It was also possible that the surge would not last long compared to previous ones, given the quick rise in infections. Previous surges usually lasted for about two to three months, David said.
Leachon urged the government to strengthen COVID-19 testing, including allowing the use of self-administered test kits, to curb infections.
He added that the government should ramp up the administration of booster shots to the vulnerable population, and primary vaccines to the unvaccinated.
He cited anti-COVID pills such as molnupiavir as a reason for optimism.
Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Benhur Abalos, meanwhile, said mayors in the capital region were scheduled to meet Sunday afternoon to discuss additional policies to control infections.
Limpin said lowering the alert level in the country was done too suddenly because it increased mobility, which may have caused COVID-19 infections to rise.
Limpin said lowering the alert level system allowed more businesses to open which could encourage more people to go out and gather.
“Lowering the alert level was too sudden. Even if we downgraded it, more people are outside,” Limpin said in an interview on radio dzBB.
She said that the movement of people should be contained.
She added that more children also went out amid the loose restrictions even if they have yet to be vaccinated against COVID-19.
“We allowed them to go out. Many kids do not follow health standards and social distancing,” she said.
Unvaccinated younger kids are more vulnerable to infection, Limpin said. She added that she even encountered a child as young as six months who tested positive for the disease.
On New Year’s Day, the Philippines posted 3,617 new COVID-19 infections after documenting below 1,000 new infections in the past months.
The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has climbed to 4.05, the highest since April 1, 2020, while the positivity rate jumped to 28 percent, according to the OCTA Research Group on Saturday.
Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down. The positivity rate meanwhile refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.
Also on Sunday, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda said the country’s best defense against the Omicron variant of COVID-19 would be “an ability to accommodate the infected and heal them fast.”
He cited studies showing that the variant is highly infectious but less lethal than the Delta variant.
“It is essential for economic recovery that we do not lose the momentum in demand and job creation that we have already sustained. So we have to get fighting this variant right,” he said.
“Omicron appears to be more infectious but less lethal than most variants. So, if we can isolate the infected and treat them quickly, we should do all right. Of course that will require some flexibility in treatment capacity again. So, we need to reactivate disused or unused isolation centers in preparation for Omicron,” he added.