Energy think tank Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities said Tuesday the Luzon grid will likely be placed under yellow alert status reflecting thin power reserves starting the last week of April until mid-June.
ICSC issued the warning in its latest report titled “Luzon Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2023” which examined the sufficiency of power supply in Luzon for the second quarter based on the power demand forecasts presented by the Department of Energy in March.
The report came a year after ICSC warned of a possible shortfall in the country’s power supply in the second quarter of 2022 in time for the national elections.
“Higher demand during summer lowers the available generating capacity from Weeks 17 [April 24 to 30] to 24 [June 12 to 18] of 2023. The supply can further deplete as forced outages of large baseload power plants can unexpectedly occur in these times, likely pushing the system into yellow alert and near red alert levels,” said ICSC chief data scientist and author of the Luzon Power Outlook 2023 report Jephraim Manansala.
“This highlights the need to monitor the compliance of all power plants with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program plans of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines,” said Manansala.
ICSC cited the updated presentation of Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara forecasting a total of 15 weeks under yellow alert status in 2023, contrary to their initial estimate of 12 weeks and none under red alert status.
ICSC took into consideration the DOE’s assumptions, including peak demand requirements of 13,125 megawatts, no planned maintenance outages and forced power plant outages amounting to about 600 MW in the second quarter this year.
ICSC said government and power industry players should ensure that power plants comply with NGCP’s GOMP by minimizing outages during this critical period to prevent the power supply from falling under red alert levels, leading to rotating power interruptions in Luzon.
It said ancillary services should be sufficient to support power transmission, and distribution utilities and participants should implement the Interruptible Load Program.
ICSC said the government should also closely watch the timely completion of power plants to provide additional capacity.
It said the recommissioning of San Miguel Corp.’s 1,200-MW Ilijan combined-cycle natural gas power plant is crucial as this would augment power supply and reduce the risk of power outages.
Manansala said ICSC’s recommended contingency plans may help prevent a power crisis in the second quarter, but more long-term solutions were needed to address the Philippines’ energy challenges.
“The current grid, centralized on large baseload coal power plants, is unsuitable for the country’s variable load demand and recurring supply shortages. Instead, evidence shows that we urgently need to shift towards flexible and distributed power generation using indigenous and readily available renewable energy sources. This will enable us to achieve affordable, reliable, and secure power for everyone, while reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and promoting sustainable development,” he said.
Manansala also asked for consumer cooperation in efficiently managing electricity demand.
“Apart from the government and key power sector players, we need the cooperation of consumers in ensuring the continuous supply of electricity in Luzon, which includes implementing energy-saving measures in the workplace, shifting energy-intensive activities to non-peak hours and upgrading to more efficient technologies in homes, commercial and industrial establishments to help balance the power supply in the grid and reduce the risk of power outages,” Manansala said.
ICSC is a Manila-based climate and energy policy group advancing climate resilience and low-carbon development.